Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Execration - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a7fac6205f3e50b4d78775f77364757dbf2ad5db361d290105611225db1f311
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- GLYPHof GLYPH, Execration
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,686
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,929
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,686 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Execration | 45c | 1,916$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.6 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x149a…49d0backed GLYPH | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 507 | 69.2%351 W · 156 L | +33.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…41fcbacked GLYPH | 50c | 849.99$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425 | 606 | 46.9%284 W · 322 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe3…ca9dbacked Execration | 40c | 621.21$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.7 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked GLYPH | 52c | 521.88$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.38 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40db…ca8cbacked GLYPH | 63c | 477.21$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.32 | 540 | 58.9%318 W · 222 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Execration | 41c | 396.73$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.97 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Execration | 45c | 391.88$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…77dcbacked Execration | 46c | 354.97$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.39 | 292 | 40.4%118 W · 174 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e25…123cbacked Execration | 55c | 263.67$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.46 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed GLYPH | 74c | 211.5$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.54 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed GLYPH | 60c | 187.82$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.72 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7055…49bbbacked GLYPH | 55c | 168.37$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.71 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +6.1wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…56efbacked GLYPH | 58c | 167.78$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.47 | 565 | 42.8%242 W · 323 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…7312backed GLYPH | 57c | 162.48$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.54 | 520 | 46.5%242 W · 278 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…2d93backed GLYPH | 51c | 137.83$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.7 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked GLYPH | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.25 | 546 | 48.5%265 W · 281 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Execration | 40c | 136.41$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.51 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Execration | 42c | 127.51$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.55 | 382 | 44.5%170 W · 212 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Execration | 39c | 121.17$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.76 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed GLYPH | 49c | 89.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.19 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28c5…c532backed GLYPH | 66c | 73$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…2c02backed Execration | 35c | 69.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 726 | 37.5%272 W · 454 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x660c…7f7abacked Execration | 44c | 58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Execration | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 137 | 33.6%46 W · 91 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked GLYPH | 69c | 41.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x595c…3b03backed Execration | 39c | 41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 108 | 52.8%57 W · 51 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x672d…dbd7backed Execration | 50c | 40.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 400 | 47.5%190 W · 210 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked GLYPH | 67c | 39.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x835a…a5c8backed Execration | 44c | 39.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked GLYPH | 51c | 28.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed GLYPH | 62c | 26.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…50d7backed Execration | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 213 | 44.1%94 W · 119 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: GLYPH vs Execration - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: GLYPH vs Execration (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier PlayoffsGLYPH won
- Dota 2: GLYPH vs Execration - Game 1 WinnerExecration won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.