Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Execration - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbedefeb9b096c30933eec6d8e77d9726e12a7fb32f8a009b93521b9f56fb4c13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Execrationof GLYPH, Execration
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,773
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,176
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,773 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x324c…93d9backed GLYPH | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 104 | 0%0 W · 104 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Execration | 40c | 977.63$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.03 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63f5…09ddbacked GLYPH | 2c | 932$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 4cpaid | +608.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Execration | 36c | 912.22$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.37 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe3…ca9dbacked GLYPH | 67c | 763.63$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.24 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked GLYPH | 67c | 334.6$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.83 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked GLYPH | 53c | 241.58$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.97 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…77dcbacked Execration | 46c | 241.07$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.07 | 292 | 40.4%118 W · 174 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed GLYPH | 47c | 216$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.52 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…698bbacked Execration | 54c | 215.18$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.91 | 480 | 53.1%255 W · 225 L | +25.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7900…3393backed Execration | 59c | 215.18$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.35 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed GLYPH | 46c | 206.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.35 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e2…9aeebacked GLYPH | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5799…db25backed Execration | 60c | 165.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.76 | 460 | 49.8%229 W · 231 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e99…0a26backed GLYPH | 68c | 164$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.52 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…eec6backed GLYPH | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 554 | 57.8%320 W · 234 L | +12.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27fd…9187backed Execration | 45c | 153.92$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.2 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked GLYPH | 52c | 122.83$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.54 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked GLYPH | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 404 | 42.3%171 W · 233 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a479backed GLYPH | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 99 | 56.6%56 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed GLYPH | 34c | 99.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…7f73backed Execration | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 261 | 54.8%143 W · 118 L | +11.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b32…5146backed GLYPH | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 253 | 56.5%143 W · 110 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked GLYPH | 51c | 84.12$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4c…1715backed GLYPH | 36c | 83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 213 | 33.3%71 W · 142 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Execration | 38c | 75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 217 | 48.8%106 W · 111 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x672d…dbd7backed Execration | 52c | 69.02$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.04 | 400 | 47.5%190 W · 210 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked GLYPH | 46c | 51.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed GLYPH | 68c | 45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe350…e494backed Execration | 49c | 41.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cd…e027backed GLYPH | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…7312backed GLYPH | 61c | 33.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 520 | 46.5%242 W · 278 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked GLYPH | 50c | 28.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 328 | 6.4%21 W · 307 L | -102.4wins | -0.31per pick | 38cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 18-0.29 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6f…f414backed GLYPH | 57c | 26.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…8b15backed GLYPH | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: GLYPH vs Execration - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: GLYPH vs Execration (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier PlayoffsGLYPH won
- Dota 2: GLYPH vs Execration - Game 2 WinnerGLYPH won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.