TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9359…8b15

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
139
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: NBA, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 53 out of 100; worst Dota2 at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jul 25, 2026, EDT7550.7%38 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 75 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 2 Winnerbacked Weibo Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winnerbacked Dplus KIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+100%+$20
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winnerbacked Karmine Corp · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winnerbacked Gen.G · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$8.08
LoL: Team Secret vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winnerbacked Karmine Corp · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$4.42
LoL: LYON vs JD Gaming (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group Dbacked JD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$12.78
LoL: AG.AL vs Dplus KIA (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group Abacked AG.AL · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$13.85
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffsbacked Hanwha Life Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$8.57
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 4 Winnerbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 3 Winnerbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+37%+$5.55
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winnerbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$19.22
LoL: G2 Esports vs LYON - Game 2 Winnerbacked LYON · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$6.32
LoL: G2 Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winnerbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
LoL: G2 Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winnerbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
LoL: LYON vs Team Secret Whales - Game 3 Winnerbacked LYON · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$20.42
LoL: LYON vs Team Secret Whales - Game 2 Winnerbacked LYON · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$18.86
LoL: LYON vs Team Secret Whales - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team Secret Whales · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$5.83
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 - Game 4 Winnerbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$19.22
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffsbacked Top Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.19
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSIbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$58.7
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winnerbacked Anyone's Legend · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winnerbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winnerbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winnerbacked Dplus KIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Showing 25 of 75 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Jun 7, 2026, EDT4050%20 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 40 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winnerbacked LGD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$14.41
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team Yandex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$6.13
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffsbacked LGD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$23.46
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winnerbacked Aurora · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$8.17
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffsbacked Team Yandex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$11.79
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winnerbacked Aurora · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winnerbacked LGD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+90.2%+$16.2
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$36.21
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Execration - Game 1 Winnerbacked GLYPH · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Games Total: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team Yandex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$28.67
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualifierbacked Aurora · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$16.15
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stagebacked BetBoom Team · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+33.4%+$100.34
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stagebacked Team Yandex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.43
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stagebacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stagebacked Aurora · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$16.67
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stagebacked GLYPH · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stagebacked Aurora · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stagebacked LGD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$106
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stagebacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$28.21
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stagebacked Team Yandex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stagebacked Xtreme Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stagebacked Team Yandex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stagebacked PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$46.42
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stagebacked BetBoom Team · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Showing 25 of 40 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jun 4, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 8, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick41cpaid+67.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+100.5%+$15.08
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+203%+$40.61
Thunder vs. Spursbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
All 3 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+22%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$21.59
All 2 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Valorant — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+57.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+57.5%+$28.75
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+29%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$210Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+29%+$60.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ebola case in the US by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Jun 7, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.