Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e8527327dc3a11462bc4eb02fd7fb71eb8cf38a0e6398ee9bfefdd6a7898f37
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,952
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,952 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Under | 48c | 1,083$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.24 | 177 | 37.9%67 W · 110 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 52c | 1,040$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.23 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ce…af35backed Under | 49c | 756.77$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.76 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Under | 49c | 599.96$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.98 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eab…4822backed Under | 52c | 572.5$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.5 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa7…003fbacked Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 450 | 52.4%236 W · 214 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc44e…7111backed Over | 52c | 447.54$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.72 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4786…ff95backed Over | 53c | 428.41$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.13 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2b…d422backed Under | 43c | 342.29$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.11 | 148 | 45.9%68 W · 80 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…f04ebacked Over | 46c | 311.23$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.16 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Under | 51c | 279.18$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.9 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…94ccbacked Over | 49c | 277.14$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa95…d397backed Over | 48c | 270.83$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Over | 46c | 199.33$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.69 | 405 | 34.6%140 W · 265 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c5…610fbacked Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc40…89cfbacked Under | 47c | 172.65$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.51 | 360 | 41.4%149 W · 211 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fe…bcd7backed Over | 53c | 167.43$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.74 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 52c | 140$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.38 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -4.6wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 47c | 133.89$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.1 | 121 | 55.4%67 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +134.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2495…28f5backed Under | 52c | 105$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 91 | 61.5%56 W · 35 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…07fdbacked Over | 50c | 102$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 243 | 49%119 W · 124 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a6…cfefbacked Under | 50c | 102$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 267 | 41.9%112 W · 155 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c7…5864backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 57c | 85.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -7.3wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Over | 47c | 85.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 1,248 | 44.4%554 W · 694 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 44c | 69.73$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.05 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b2…a017backed Under | 50c | 67.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 50c | 63.86$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 713 | 42.5%303 W · 410 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b10…523bbacked Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Over | 57c | 43.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Under | 48c | 43.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 294 | 32.3%95 W · 199 L | -19.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60e4…3618backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +50%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…d14bbacked Under | 48c | 32.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fe…1538backed Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 46c | 26.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…8b15backed Over | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam PlayoffsTeam Yandex won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 WinnerTeam Yandex won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 WinnerTeam Yandex won
- Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5)Team Yandex won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.