TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
PARIVISIONof Aurora, PARIVISION
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$634,078
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$752,666

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $634,078 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 456 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfbf3…b218backed Aurora45c88,182$39,692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,691.7516147.2%76 W · 85 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed PARIVISION59c64,106$38,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,105.541,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked PARIVISION58c54,599$31,814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,785.7217452.3%91 W · 83 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffe9…a70ebacked PARIVISION59c26,156$15,407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,748.468847.7%42 W · 46 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Aurora40c23,544$9,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,53096557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed Aurora40c21,265$8,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,551.0333746.3%156 W · 181 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Aurora41c15,155$6,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,21228159.8%168 W · 113 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked PARIVISION54c14,562$7,863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,698.3719847%93 W · 105 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Aurora46c14,303$6,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,649.891735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-18.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x08c2…c023backed Aurora19c12,449$2,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,322.4348954.6%267 W · 222 L+23.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9a11…eb9dbacked Aurora42c11,666$4,935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,935.0416945%76 W · 93 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-15.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed PARIVISION56c11,526$6,492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,033.7671454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4e8d…febfbacked Aurora44c11,264$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00021650.9%110 W · 106 L-25.3wins-0.12per pick63cpaid-21.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked PARIVISION55c11,235$6,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,055.551,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked PARIVISION55c10,000$5,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,50089741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked PARIVISION55c10,000$5,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,510.81,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed PARIVISION72c7,670$5,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,184.5768649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c8f…4d12backed Aurora43c7,245$3,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,108.8235062.6%219 W · 131 L+44.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+26.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked PARIVISION61c6,653$4,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,614.811,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Aurora39c6,597$2,593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,593.1777941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked PARIVISION69c6,486$4,469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,016.889749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked PARIVISION79c6,479$5,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,367.7592056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x05a7…42e6backed PARIVISION58c6,341$3,658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,683.0941056.8%233 W · 177 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked PARIVISION64c6,165$3,932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,232.461,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6f5…f3b5backed PARIVISION56c5,971$3,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,628.1718351.9%95 W · 88 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3601…44fbbacked PARIVISION50c5,763$2,897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,866.4616954.4%92 W · 77 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb35…b62abacked PARIVISION57c5,609$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,408.6339343.3%170 W · 223 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Aurora40c5,500$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,199.999839.8%39 W · 59 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52e5…60babacked PARIVISION62c5,336$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,036.468959.6%53 W · 36 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60dd…40e5backed PARIVISION75c5,329$3,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,348.2433453%177 W · 157 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked Aurora42c5,000$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,10056542.8%242 W · 323 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked PARIVISION57c5,000$2,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,15041944.2%185 W · 234 L-1.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb234…1c20backed PARIVISION54c5,000$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,299.9529042.1%122 W · 168 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f45…a77abacked Aurora38c4,500$1,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7105244.2%23 W · 29 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-21.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5054…0aafbacked Aurora42c4,337$1,832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,832.3713851.4%71 W · 67 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47bd…bc9dbacked Aurora46c4,120$1,895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,894.9741055.6%228 W · 182 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Aurora38c3,976$1,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,510.813525.7%9 W · 26 L-6.9wins-0.20per pick46cpaid-43.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xc62d…74fcbacked Aurora25c3,924$963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$962.925251.9%27 W · 25 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x299b…cdc1backed Aurora28c3,547$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0006552.3%34 W · 31 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd1b…e3b3backed Aurora29c3,409$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0009754.6%53 W · 44 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cb4…00eabacked PARIVISION60c3,334$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,333.65964.4%38 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xceed…f8eebacked Aurora38c3,316$1,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,248.333847.4%18 W · 20 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82da…da33backed Aurora46c3,239$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50010743%46 W · 61 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb55…51ddbacked PARIVISION76c3,092$2,365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$727.0335960.4%217 W · 142 L-1.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed PARIVISION54c3,030$1,639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,390.7969644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7714…b814backed Aurora46c3,000$1,382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,382.2824153.1%128 W · 113 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cd1…285dbacked Aurora41c3,000$1,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2305154.9%28 W · 23 L+4.7wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+15.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0e62…f6ffbacked Aurora46c3,000$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,38010646.2%49 W · 57 L-0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ae1…1e7ebacked Aurora38c2,835$1,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,087.6232951.7%170 W · 159 L-0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked Aurora21c2,770$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.0150850.8%258 W · 250 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfaf…d959backed Aurora42c2,747$1,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,143.096541.5%27 W · 38 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb333…c7eebacked Aurora50c2,638$1,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,327.672560%15 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked PARIVISION60c2,538$1,523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,015.921,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed Aurora20c2,487$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.6635758%207 W · 150 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked PARIVISION64c2,219$1,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$798.0826956.1%151 W · 118 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked PARIVISION50c2,181$1,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,090.3579859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Aurora26c2,174$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.2369132.6%225 W · 466 L-26.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked PARIVISION52c2,082$1,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$989.2177256.5%436 W · 336 L+30.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef62…cf76backed Aurora42c2,065$867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$867.1643344.8%194 W · 239 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d16…212ebacked Aurora50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0008360.2%50 W · 33 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0ea6…180dbacked Aurora37c2,000$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7402050%10 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+14%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe881…19abbacked Aurora1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201153.5%4 W · 111 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-88.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6111…4742backed Aurora41c2,000$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8204957.1%28 W · 21 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+12.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdf27…026fbacked PARIVISION59c2,000$1,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$819.9965863.1%415 W · 243 L+17.5wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8051…2ab5backed Aurora50c1,986$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+58.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Aurora38c1,975$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750.4981029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Aurora42c1,972$831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$830.956955.5%316 W · 253 L+22.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e01…b0b5backed Aurora19c1,956$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.9920642.7%88 W · 118 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked PARIVISION76c1,915$1,453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.91,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed PARIVISION65c1,844$1,206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$638.0120740.1%83 W · 124 L-14.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x254b…e8abbacked Aurora38c1,831$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.591258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x018c…9794backed PARIVISION79c1,817$1,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.923161.3%19 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5038…6236backed Aurora42c1,750$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73526540.8%108 W · 157 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-16.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed Aurora40c1,713$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$678.0630336.6%111 W · 192 L-18.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5e93…439cbacked Aurora37c1,702$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.69250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6ab…b16ebacked Aurora37c1,702$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.691163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick44cpaid+31.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ebe…5e6fbacked PARIVISION57c1,700$966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73425752.1%134 W · 123 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32e3…3a5cbacked PARIVISION75c1,700$1,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43012146.3%56 W · 65 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-18.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51c7…98aabacked PARIVISION59c1,689$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$688.9729160.1%175 W · 116 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed Aurora43c1,651$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$710.1160552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Aurora39c1,600$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.6817047.1%80 W · 90 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Aurora40c1,581$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.9893546.4%434 W · 501 L-15.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a53…cc07backed PARIVISION60c1,510$906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19f5…6092backed Aurora40c1,510$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93bd…bbc5backed PARIVISION60c1,500$906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$593.5753764.4%346 W · 191 L+26.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cd2…f5c4backed PARIVISION80c1,500$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3007864.1%50 W · 28 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4214…db99backed Aurora41c1,500$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.9936343.3%157 W · 206 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5812…7d11backed Aurora21c1,500$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.992157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked PARIVISION61c1,493$914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.8110833.3%36 W · 72 L-7.1wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-39.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd525…1815backed Aurora49c1,478$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$724.225740.4%23 W · 34 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed PARIVISION64c1,460$937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523.122,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed Aurora40c1,416$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.3265441.9%274 W · 380 L-1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Aurora43c1,400$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.6736248.6%176 W · 186 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc214…105dbacked Aurora52c1,356$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70048843.6%213 W · 275 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x29e8…091cbacked Aurora30c1,352$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4002030%6 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked Aurora3c1,343$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5716725.7%43 W · 124 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-23.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b6d…dbbbbacked PARIVISION58c1,300$759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5412147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa0b…2debbacked Aurora42c1,283$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53919547.7%93 W · 102 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab12…764ebacked Aurora41c1,250$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.527060%162 W · 108 L-11.3wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfbc2…514cbacked Aurora21c1,250$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.1233845.6%154 W · 184 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.