TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Team Secret vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Karmine Corpof Team Secret , Karmine Corp
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$549,785
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$658,763

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $549,785 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 451 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc69b…2076backed Team Secret 32c28,251$8,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,997.6769741.5%289 W · 408 L-17.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Karmine Corp79c18,688$14,852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,835.4881143.5%353 W · 458 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked Team Secret 22c18,496$4,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,059.661,29545.1%584 W · 711 L+49.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Team Secret 36c16,627$6,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,023.2532150.2%161 W · 160 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed Team Secret 42c15,979$6,703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,702.5535448.6%172 W · 182 L+14.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2518…254fbacked Karmine Corp52c15,446$8,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,350.5253355%293 W · 240 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked Team Secret 27c14,816$4,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,061.911,53662.6%961 W · 575 L+157.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Team Secret 35c13,157$4,608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,608.471,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3818…9797backed Karmine Corp64c12,271$7,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,370.7757957.9%335 W · 244 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6842…20d0backed Team Secret 56c10,462$5,829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,829.131,01147.1%476 W · 535 L+21.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4840…41f3backed Team Secret 1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100623.2%2 W · 60 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-77.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcae6…4f85backed Karmine Corp66c6,982$4,629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,352.6367276.9%517 W · 155 L+87.3wins+0.13per pick64cpaid+30.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xa05e…4394backed Karmine Corp68c6,850$4,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,170.214360.8%87 W · 56 L+8.5wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa39…bb64backed Karmine Corp64c6,495$4,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,344.1113561.5%83 W · 52 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd799…3395backed Team Secret 62c6,482$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0003458.8%20 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+14.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc387…5a97backed Karmine Corp63c6,007$3,811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,195.3960354.7%330 W · 273 L-2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7de3…d59bbacked Karmine Corp60c5,500$3,295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,204.9742149.2%207 W · 214 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed Karmine Corp64c5,454$3,491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,963.441,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b05…3455backed Karmine Corp58c5,260$3,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2266450%32 W · 32 L+7.6wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+33.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x58a3…5336backed Karmine Corp63c5,000$3,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,839.996663.6%42 W · 24 L+9.3wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+44%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2b42…62afbacked Team Secret 30c4,982$1,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,497.5734536.5%126 W · 219 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-3.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2a35…9015backed Team Secret 36c4,499$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60036943.9%162 W · 207 L-16.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcea4…be49backed Team Secret 15c4,482$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657.4412717.3%22 W · 105 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-24%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ec8…3a77backed Karmine Corp44c4,283$1,898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,385.49542.1%40 W · 55 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x000e…f7e9backed Karmine Corp63c4,000$2,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,48089943.4%390 W · 509 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Team Secret 34c4,000$1,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,354.422,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed Karmine Corp56c3,893$2,181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,711.431,32253.2%703 W · 619 L+36.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x05b2…a469backed Karmine Corp75c3,885$2,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$975.281457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9348…6664backed Karmine Corp78c3,557$2,758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$798.8428859%170 W · 118 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Team Secret 37c3,307$1,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,238.691,11339%434 W · 679 L-44.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x579c…ff45backed Karmine Corp62c3,250$2,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2353473.5%25 W · 9 L+4.5wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+32.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe197…71ebbacked Karmine Corp58c3,061$1,778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,282.8827745.8%127 W · 150 L-12.9wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fb2…5c04backed Team Secret 1c2,895$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.952522%5 W · 247 L+0.4wins0.00per pick2cpaid-93.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2391…554fbacked Team Secret 38c2,632$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00028642.7%122 W · 164 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce20…0b7bbacked Team Secret 29c2,452$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70030554.8%167 W · 138 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed Karmine Corp70c2,398$1,679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.4989347%420 W · 473 L+44.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6557…0999backed Team Secret 3c2,357$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.78130.9%25 W · 56 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Karmine Corp65c2,241$1,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$775.892,93844.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L-92.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf991…3965backed Karmine Corp44c2,201$968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,232.5621049.5%104 W · 106 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5286…0d47backed Team Secret 38c2,189$832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$831.9727637.3%103 W · 173 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d85…f4e0backed Team Secret 34c2,153$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731.1364247.4%304 W · 338 L+24.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed Karmine Corp64c2,029$1,298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$730.2851146.8%239 W · 272 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58ce…e206backed Karmine Corp55c2,000$1,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89022452.2%117 W · 107 L+14.6wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+10.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3e81…8b41backed Team Secret 32c1,987$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.9210517.1%18 W · 87 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32eb…ded0backed Team Secret 64c1,865$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.9931644.3%140 W · 176 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Karmine Corp63c1,857$1,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$687.091,30555.9%729 W · 576 L+44.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1d9…5333backed Team Secret 39c1,676$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.2958559.7%349 W · 236 L+28.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd599…bf55backed Team Secret 20c1,653$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33517933%59 W · 120 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd29b…96adbacked Team Secret 56c1,601$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90016366.3%108 W · 55 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5809…9868backed Karmine Corp64c1,531$976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.8997427.8%271 W · 703 L-23.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-28.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd96…e623backed Karmine Corp63c1,500$945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55539851.8%206 W · 192 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6bb…c0aabacked Karmine Corp68c1,500$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48033058.5%193 W · 137 L-12.9wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Team Secret 28c1,420$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.687844.2%388 W · 490 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x146c…b807backed Karmine Corp66c1,360$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.7314847.3%70 W · 78 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Karmine Corp63c1,350$849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.491,24242.6%529 W · 713 L-18.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x87a2…2250backed Karmine Corp66c1,341$881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.7710382.5%85 W · 18 L+16.8wins+0.16per pick66cpaid+26.3%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x1bf4…25edbacked Karmine Corp70c1,287$901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.11457.1%8 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick66cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb53…7b74backed Karmine Corp63c1,277$804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.3648763.2%308 W · 179 L+20.1wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc9c5…6394backed Team Secret 44c1,242$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.598726.4%23 W · 64 L-6.3wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-15.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd3f1…7535backed Team Secret 9c1,230$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11034237.7%129 W · 213 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3445…d229backed Team Secret 2c1,200$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245833.6%21 W · 562 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+178.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf268…960fbacked Team Secret 51c1,188$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60047453.4%253 W · 221 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ced…0feebacked Team Secret 37c1,137$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.6676955%423 W · 346 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Karmine Corp63c1,118$709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.2313353.4%71 W · 62 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfa8…cae6backed Karmine Corp65c1,068$694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.6982953.4%443 W · 386 L-3.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ebd…b66abacked Karmine Corp77c1,058$819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.34564.4%29 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick59cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x64c4…1018backed Team Secret 35c1,012$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.0431953%169 W · 150 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3752…2f08backed Team Secret 60c1,006$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.0332045.6%146 W · 174 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd12c…ed3dbacked Team Secret 37c1,000$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37012649.2%62 W · 64 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+18.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ac7…8a43backed Team Secret 20c1,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20018132.6%59 W · 122 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+50.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x05df…e268backed Team Secret 41c1,000$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.923241.4%96 W · 136 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x253e…84e4backed Karmine Corp44c1,000$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.5422746.3%105 W · 122 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee7c…70f2backed Karmine Corp45c1,000$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55548533.6%163 W · 322 L+23.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x27c7…ba3ebacked Karmine Corp72c999.99$716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.1233069.7%230 W · 100 L+28.7wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+10.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1d49…7cc0backed Team Secret 44c999.72$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.337450%37 W · 37 L-7.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-17%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xff88…00e9backed Team Secret 6c997$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.821175.1%6 W · 111 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Team Secret 35c958.46$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.051,39943.7%612 W · 787 L-4.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04d2…4850backed Team Secret 32c950$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.517448.3%84 W · 90 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-0.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Team Secret 54c940.98$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.911,80639.1%707 W · 1,099 L-30.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed Karmine Corp68c937.66$635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.2314655.5%81 W · 65 L+11.2wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0a75…fc33backed Team Secret 43c936.32$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020151.2%103 W · 98 L+11.8wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Karmine Corp71c908.73$646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.4885849.5%425 W · 433 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x842c…6674backed Karmine Corp51c901.51$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.4718162.4%113 W · 68 L+21.1wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+16.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0dab…4211backed Team Secret 9c900$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8110241.2%42 W · 60 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6f8…7fa1backed Team Secret 24c878.98$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21077746.2%359 W · 418 L+18.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe50e…45c5backed Team Secret 23c867.11$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.3219340.4%78 W · 115 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Karmine Corp65c852.7$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.9494444.4%419 W · 525 L-31.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Team Secret 3c849.97$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271,5173.3%50 W · 1,467 L-53.9wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-74.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Team Secret 34c830.13$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.2498956.8%562 W · 427 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5815…6130backed Team Secret 36c800$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.852951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a2c…83afbacked Team Secret 1c800$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114202.6%11 W · 409 L-15.2wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-81.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ddb…420bbacked Team Secret 55c796.64$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.1514150.4%71 W · 70 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71b0…9ef4backed Karmine Corp46c771.54$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.0425252.4%132 W · 120 L+19.1wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+6.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd501…b86ebacked Karmine Corp45c750$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.512045%54 W · 66 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed Karmine Corp63c750$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27532844.2%145 W · 183 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x05e4…8d31backed Karmine Corp35c749.99$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.52955.2%16 W · 13 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+32.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x59cb…57d1backed Karmine Corp66c736.36$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.3614656.2%82 W · 64 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa844…83b8backed Team Secret 39c711.4$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.9862158.8%365 W · 256 L+32.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc35b…8dddbacked Team Secret 28c703.46$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.088048.8%39 W · 41 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Karmine Corp43c691.48$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.4851852.7%273 W · 245 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.