Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a9517d3cf09fa0924bf7466edc7df8cc1afd347eee44346ab99fc25ed66f0bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,105
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,105 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 19c | 642.72$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.71 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af2…ce86backed Yes | 29c | 374.42$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.98 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 361$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.04 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x139b…2db1backed Yes | 27c | 359.07$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.6 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 27c | 238.63$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 77c | 216.05$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.88 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa6…49a1backed No | 73c | 202.93$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.79 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a9…4bdfbacked Yes | 17c | 180$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe4…4841backed Yes | 28c | 179.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 162.27$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.93 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 43c | 161.12$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 37c | 146.91$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.03 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 77c | 142.39$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.58 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 15c | 129.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 72c | 122.62$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 120.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…0208backed Yes | 45c | 111.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28c0…8eeebacked Yes | 33c | 110.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 109$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.37 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 10c | 107.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecad…f818backed No | 59c | 101.86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x047f…6e6bbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 78c | 97.06$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 11c | 93.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 22c | 86.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 28c | 80.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…b9a9backed Yes | 52c | 76.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…bee4backed Yes | 55c | 64.74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 33c | 61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked Yes | 38c | 60.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 26c | 58.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f8…d99bbacked Yes | 29c | 54.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 24c | 53.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 58c | 52.94$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 30c | 51.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 29c | 50.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 27c | 49.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 65c | 45.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed No | 72c | 44.31$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 41.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…b97abacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 175 | 36.6%64 W · 111 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 29c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 74c | 38.51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e54…7986backed No | 66c | 37.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 54c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe168…f375backed Yes | 29c | 34.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc47e…0fc4backed Yes | 40c | 33.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 72c | 28.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 64c | 27.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 69c | 26.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 67c | 24.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 42c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 73c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 73c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 69c | 18.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 63c | 17.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.