Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8567aa8b1bc04ea78d856a9ee1ca39e65060f033b5663294b9bc850e57b46171
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,246
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,902
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,246 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 79c | 1,069$843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.88 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0af2…ce86backed Yes | 54c | 989.49$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.62 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 41c | 587.88$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.11 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c01…aa0fbacked No | 27c | 581.62$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +116.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 34c | 516.61$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.72 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507d…7d9bbacked No | 3c | 478.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 55c | 416.49$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.82 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed No | 30c | 404.97$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.89 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 5c | 374.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 29c | 354.58$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.28 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…b9a9backed Yes | 61c | 342.89$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.76 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdc…57b3backed No | 62c | 300$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 105 | 77.1%81 W · 24 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd879…7bc3backed Yes | 23c | 297.23$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.25 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +7.0wins | +0.16per pick | 36cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…d0babacked Yes | 27c | 291.77$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.75 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…2dafbacked Yes | 23c | 270$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.1 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 57c | 237.26$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.02 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 19c | 210.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.01 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 59c | 197.77$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.94 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 34c | 196.94$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.2 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 33c | 190.18$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.2 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dab…6d0ebacked No | 42c | 177.72$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +126.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0e…8337backed Yes | 17c | 176.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.3 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb9…901ebacked No | 69c | 171$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.15 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 11c | 156.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c96…42efbacked Yes | 63c | 150$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.8 | 31 | 83.9%26 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 70cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked Yes | 38c | 150$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed Yes | 42c | 143.29$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.29 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed No | 29c | 143$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 26c | 139$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7445…268fbacked Yes | 14c | 136.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.82 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…bee4backed Yes | 44c | 136.86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.3 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeead…178dbacked Yes | 75c | 133.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.56 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.27per pick | 72cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 15c | 132.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.07 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 29c | 131.93$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 16c | 130.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.37 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 23c | 129$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 14c | 128.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.36 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb722…1098backed No | 12c | 124.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 33cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 42c | 120.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.46 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 30c | 119.41$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x28c0…8eeebacked Yes | 58c | 115$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.95 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x851d…a743backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88e4…e2afbacked Yes | 21c | 92.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.09 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 39c | 90.48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.13 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5289…0514backed No | 23c | 80.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10c9…e999backed No | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 24c | 71.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.98 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed No | 59c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 52c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a9…08e2backed No | 23c | 69.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…cefbbacked No | 56c | 67.12$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 52c | 65.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 77c | 64.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f8…d99bbacked Yes | 59c | 64.64$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 24c | 61.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.48 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 32c | 58.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.37 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 53c | 56.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 67c | 55.97$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x22ea…e40dbacked No | 75c | 54.85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.22 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2823…22f2backed No | 23c | 48.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc58a…e589backed No | 23c | 48.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked Yes | 38c | 48.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd6…dee8backed No | 59c | 46.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x604b…6845backed No | 24c | 44.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 74c | 44.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed Yes | 57c | 43.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6e…511bbacked No | 53c | 42.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 42c | 42.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 72c | 37.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 42c | 34.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1283…ddf0backed No | 54c | 32.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3de4…5849backed No | 44c | 32.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc47e…0fc4backed Yes | 38c | 32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 65c | 30.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e3…4686backed No | 79c | 30.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…8eeabacked Yes | 60c | 29.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 40 | 75%30 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 77c | 29.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 52c | 28.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…64f4backed No | 55c | 27.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 41c | 26.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x047f…6e6bbacked Yes | 51c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x823a…61abbacked No | 46c | 25.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3127…6f1bbacked Yes | 78c | 25.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 23.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe22b…4d39backed No | 61c | 23.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 78c | 19.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 68c | 18.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.