Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a9d9e6795ea62fb5162a0d5c3835d71f6e12179620e0c0033dca6324ad4a760
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,787
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,751
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,787 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 31c | 633.16$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.66 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 16c | 269.67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 74c | 167.63$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda89…6215backed Yes | 38c | 143.45$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 66c | 133.51$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.56 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 110.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa50b…12c4backed No | 42c | 108.24$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.18 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x818b…1646backed Yes | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 51c | 89.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed No | 75c | 87.8$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 54c | 86.51$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.61 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 73c | 75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 201 | 73.1%147 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 60c | 72.77$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 74c | 72.08$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 32c | 71.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 58c | 67.05$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 66.43$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca69…7153backed No | 68c | 65.06$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 32c | 64.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 43c | 63.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.05 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed No | 46c | 62.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.53 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 48c | 55.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 35c | 54.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 54.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 76c | 52.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…4ea8backed No | 48c | 48.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8699…f6bebacked No | 41c | 46.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | +12.4wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 31c | 46.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…2aa0backed Yes | 40c | 46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1e…0567backed No | 69c | 41.66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 39.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 46c | 39.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed No | 44c | 35.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 59c | 34.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 36c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 37c | 32.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 31.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 63c | 31.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a8b7backed Yes | 65c | 30.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fce…6732backed No | 75c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 28.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 73c | 28.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 55c | 25.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2162…929ebacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 66c | 22.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 64c | 21.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1442…c64fbacked Yes | 70c | 17.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.