MLB · resolved market
Yankees vs. Orioles
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a9fda09e115e0cd0833543ae7c8b3a39937c66f3172dc93abd07e0420245c8d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yankeesof Yankees, Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,406
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,154
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,406 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Orioles | 39c | 3,401$1,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,333.57 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Yankees | 60c | 2,625$1,575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050.16 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b1…6f55backed Orioles | 42c | 2,353$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.23 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Orioles | 40c | 2,131$853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.87 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Orioles | 13c | 1,919$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.49 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Orioles | 38c | 1,750$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Orioles | 39c | 1,722$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.26 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Yankees | 61c | 1,535$936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.66 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Orioles | 40c | 1,306$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.3 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yankees | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Yankees | 58c | 862$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.04 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Yankees | 61c | 820.26$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.26 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yankees | 58c | 754.31$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.81 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd33b…4e00backed Orioles | 43c | 590.7$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Yankees | 57c | 499.52$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.8 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Yankees | 58c | 466.14$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.78 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yankees | 59c | 300$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88cf…7d31backed Yankees | 63c | 185$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.45 | 198 | 49.5%98 W · 100 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fc…3280backed Yankees | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yankees | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Yankees | 60c | 117.77$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.57 | 160 | 55.6%89 W · 71 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x304f…3d89backed Yankees | 62c | 112.08$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x024a…decbbacked Orioles | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Yankees | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Yankees | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 736 | 53%390 W · 346 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Yankees | 58c | 70.25$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…072dbacked Yankees | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Orioles | 41c | 41.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Orioles | 40c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Yankees | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Yankees | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…009fbacked Yankees | 60c | 29.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c46…cd7dbacked Yankees | 61c | 16.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.