Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-02-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ab9828702121547ac7318b8eb2da0280736fba0538bbf73733ebd930e23a2f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,469
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $103,229
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,469 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 10c | 12,588$1,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,289.35 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 6c | 7,200$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.69 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed Yes | 15c | 5,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.27per pick | 49cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 12c | 4,322$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.26 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes | 15c | 3,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.99 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Yes | 15c | 2,200$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5849…dcf1backed Yes | 15c | 1,162$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.3 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Yes | 5c | 869.04$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.03 | 143 | 15.4%22 W · 121 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fcc…e083backed Yes | 18c | 765.65$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…2ecfbacked Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 131 | 29.8%39 W · 92 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9a…7ef9backed Yes | 16c | 469.7$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…1a9cbacked Yes | 13c | 388.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde5a…4db5backed Yes | 17c | 320.24$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.44 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3929…c3f2backed Yes | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked Yes | 15c | 232.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 147 | 26.5%39 W · 108 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed Yes | 15c | 191.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Yes | 15c | 154.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f6…4892backed Yes | 16c | 131.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 11c | 131$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43a1…2425backed Yes | 13c | 112.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Yes | 15c | 67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 149 | 42.3%63 W · 86 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd258…9dfdbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed No | 64c | 55.46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 66c | 29.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-02-14?this page
- Will VfB Stuttgart vs. 1. FC Köln end in a draw?No won
- Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-02-14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.