Bundesliga · resolved market
Will VfB Stuttgart vs. 1. FC Köln end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba9d633c529140ba5b4a238fc39e86c4da92772a56deb2d4b9915fef383f690e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,612
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,711
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,612 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 49c | 5,070$2,494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,576.23 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4c…8138backed Yes | 62c | 5,000$3,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Yes | 26c | 1,679$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.53 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…b79abacked Yes | 19c | 1,394$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,250$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 143 | 15.4%22 W · 121 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…cd41backed No | 80c | 1,235$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.94 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 71cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 25c | 1,091$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.48 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8479…37f8backed Yes | 8c | 891$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.28 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -4.3wins | -0.19per pick | 28cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe500…4b37backed Yes | 23c | 851.71$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 19c | 835.51$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.75 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked Yes | 20c | 720$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Yes | 17c | 623.53$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe831…a42abacked Yes | 20c | 606$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.2 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 13c | 580.45$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fcc…e083backed Yes | 17c | 536.12$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.14 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 77c | 375.2$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.29 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Yes | 18c | 340.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.79 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0438…9d98backed Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -7.1wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2590…e38ebacked Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1871…59e6backed Yes | 61c | 300$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked No | 80c | 272.12$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.42 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…04b5backed No | 40c | 265$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73c1…1eaebacked Yes | 14c | 216.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…d215backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 17.6%15 W · 70 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Yes | 16c | 114.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 92 | 52.2%48 W · 44 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9de0…dacebacked Yes | 11c | 103.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…5e10backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xace9…f74abacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80f…92febacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…7e1bbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Yes | 17c | 96.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.7wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…02d6backed No | 80c | 86.37$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb32e…a46abacked Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43a1…2425backed Yes | 19c | 66.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6b…e258backed Yes | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 47c | 66.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe06a…ad57backed Yes | 20c | 62.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d9…4007backed Yes | 20c | 61.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6961…66a7backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03e7…5284backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7955…6c53backed Yes | 20c | 59.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Yes | 20c | 59.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0326…3e1ebacked Yes | 20c | 56.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef8…1583backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 22cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20be…6508backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 47c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 80c | 43.17$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf965…9e79backed No | 59c | 37.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 58c | 23.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed No | 61c | 22.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will VfB Stuttgart vs. 1. FC Köln end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-02-14?No won
- Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-02-14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.