MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ad5087a504ee2401cfde99b45d228d4bd90b917fe1f3c95a93816e6f997138d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,115
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,286
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,115 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xedd1…45a9backed Under | 2c | 3,534$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.34 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 56c | 3,205$1,789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,415.91 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafc4…daa1backed Under | 2c | 3,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…cd14backed Under | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 6cpaid | +393.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…d922backed Under | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 7cpaid | +162.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 74c | 1,521$1,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.48 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 31c | 1,483$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.36 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…15eebacked Under | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 82 | 15.9%13 W · 69 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Under | 5c | 900$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 63 | 14.3%9 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbde7…cf8abacked Under | 5c | 900$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 160 | 19.4%31 W · 129 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 49c | 789.31$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.81 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…fc8abacked Under | 9c | 774$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.64 | 102 | 15.7%16 W · 86 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 40c | 735$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 43c | 626.74$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 47c | 594$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.21 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 41c | 503.56$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.46 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Under | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 119 | 14.3%17 W · 102 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +289.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 45c | 500$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.21 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 51c | 392.19$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.17 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Under | 43c | 378.68$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.77 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 55c | 281.04$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.57 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 51c | 263.62$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.44 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 56c | 245$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.2 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 45c | 149.11$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.01 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 54c | 135.07$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.94 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 45c | 127.82$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.3 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed Under | 15c | 91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | -9.5wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 56c | 83$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.48 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 56c | 81.79$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Under | 55c | 56.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 50c | 51.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 46c | 48.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 50c | 39.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 54c | 33.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 52c | 33.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Over | 49c | 30.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Under | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 469 | 46.3%217 W · 252 L | -25.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…c678backed Over | 49c | 27.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Over | 49c | 26.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 71c | 25.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.