TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,614
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,624

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,614 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5628…abbcbacked Over19c495.49$96 inLost-$96.311,43550%717 W · 718 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x435d…c52abacked Over22c166.64$36 inLost-$36.3667444.1%297 W · 377 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+12.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over49c138.1$68 inLost-$67.6710,97951.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L+139.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Under78c112.64$88 inWon+$24.782,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0011…4cbabacked Under80c87.5$70 inWon+$17.530963.1%195 W · 114 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Under51c86$44 inWon+$42.136,30548.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L+181.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3eb4…9cb8backed Over20c68$14 inLost-$13.66051.7%31 W · 29 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a6e…9bc5backed Under80c39.18$31 inWon+$7.847558.7%44 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0c2…b14dbacked Under51c34.19$17 inWon+$16.751,14948.9%562 W · 587 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde25…c0a5backed Under80c33.42$27 inWon+$6.6846946.3%217 W · 252 L-25.7wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Under79c30$24 inWon+$6.32,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Under72c18.96$14 inWon+$5.255,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ef0…d45bbacked Under80c12.5$10 inWon+$2.56549.2%32 W · 33 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.