MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd1cd56293cc906b35bf5877ffa9fa820302e8f0d8ef1bf7d00f3e30570138c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,379
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,637
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,379 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 58c | 10,269$5,959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,309.17 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a6…0009backed Under | 75c | 5,000$3,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,750 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 59c | 1,695$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.4 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 50c | 1,377$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.48 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 25c | 1,272$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$954.32 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…fc8abacked Under | 18c | 1,182$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.07 | 102 | 15.7%16 W · 86 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 46c | 1,037$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.22 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked Over | 31c | 851.87$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.87 | 265 | 45.7%121 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafc4…daa1backed Under | 10c | 851.82$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.18 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Under | 17c | 725$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.5 | 63 | 14.3%9 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbde7…cf8abacked Under | 17c | 725$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.5 | 160 | 19.4%31 W · 129 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94ba…001dbacked Under | 14c | 700$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 9cpaid | +131%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 41c | 555.51$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.76 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 41c | 555.51$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.76 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 53c | 507$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.71 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 34c | 499.99$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.99 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…cefbbacked Under | 2c | 459.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 57c | 445.82$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.7 | 752 | 44%331 W · 421 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 66c | 399$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.82 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 56c | 355.07$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.04 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcff0…fa1abacked Under | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +117.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f70…ce77backed Under | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x845a…37acbacked Under | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167f…fa5ebacked Under | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +6.3wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +60%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xedd1…45a9backed Under | 13c | 250$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05e0…e2cbbacked Over | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed Under | 21c | 213.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.74 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | -9.5wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 55c | 206.26$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.51 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 50c | 161.12$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.03 | 6,302 | 48.3%3,041 W · 3,261 L | +181.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Under | 40c | 160$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -10.2wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked Under | 45c | 148.41$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.44 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked Under | 45c | 148.38$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.43 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Under | 38c | 140$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdf…8666backed Under | 42c | 140$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa440…c249backed Under | 37c | 140$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4b…556bbacked Under | 13c | 120$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 63 | 9.5%6 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7da4…f0a4backed Under | 18c | 115$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +11.3wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x389d…995fbacked Under | 35c | 99.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…15eebacked Under | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 82 | 15.9%13 W · 69 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 60c | 64.81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Under | 37c | 59.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 99 | 39.4%39 W · 60 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 69c | 59.9$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 5,126 | 54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L | +231.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Over | 44c | 56.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…4756backed Under | 35c | 49.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e0…a311backed Over | 46c | 46.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…19a9backed Over | 46c | 43.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Under | 49c | 42.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7268…78abbacked Under | 40c | 33.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 200 | 40%80 W · 120 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Under | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 469 | 46.3%217 W · 252 L | -25.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 53c | 26.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 62c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf574…de82backed Over | 46c | 22.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…3107backed Under | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 125 | 72%90 W · 35 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.