MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d04f66bfbee45a30d8b3d00081d55dee59f7e7231b410530f80c02415f7f63d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kansas City Royalsof Chicago White Sox, Kansas City Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,919
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,638
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,919 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago White Sox | 54c | 8,083$4,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,387.7 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Chicago White Sox | 46c | 3,151$1,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,437.27 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Chicago White Sox | 46c | 3,151$1,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,437.27 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Kansas City Royals | 50c | 2,826$1,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,412.24 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Chicago White Sox | 35c | 2,054$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.25 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kansas City Royals | 34c | 1,779$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,169.51 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Kansas City Royals | 34c | 1,287$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.46 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Kansas City Royals | 64c | 937.34$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.54 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kansas City Royals | 56c | 742.62$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.23 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked Chicago White Sox | 47c | 723.62$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 265 | 45.7%121 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Chicago White Sox | 66c | 448.25$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.44 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Kansas City Royals | 33c | 360.39$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.46 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Kansas City Royals | 28c | 349.64$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.74 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Chicago White Sox | 67c | 316.39$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.98 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6f…be20backed Kansas City Royals | 57c | 281.31$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.33 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Kansas City Royals | 47c | 210.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.79 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Chicago White Sox | 31c | 167.47$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.21 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Chicago White Sox | 48c | 105.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.83 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Kansas City Royals | 28c | 104.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.52 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Kansas City Royals | 45c | 86.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.87 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Kansas City Royals | 26c | 79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.56 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked Chicago White Sox | 28c | 71.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 447 | 44.1%197 W · 250 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago White Sox | 74c | 69$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.06 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Kansas City Royals | 33c | 63.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.22 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Chicago White Sox | 47c | 61.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Kansas City Royals | 32c | 51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…f14dbacked Chicago White Sox | 36c | 48.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed Chicago White Sox | 44c | 45.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | -9.5wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Chicago White Sox | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 268 | 54.1%145 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Chicago White Sox | 34c | 36.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Kansas City Royals | 57c | 29.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Kansas City Royals | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Kansas City Royals | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Chicago White Sox | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 99 | 39.4%39 W · 60 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4135…185fbacked Kansas City Royals | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.