MLB · resolved market
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5912133056fe0682275da97236960232cb380c99eb77759ee17a58974b10eab4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago White Soxof Kansas City Royals, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,782
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,486
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,782 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago White Sox | 75c | 5,867$4,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,478.45 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kansas City Royals | 23c | 3,545$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.69 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Kansas City Royals | 31c | 1,370$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.97 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kansas City Royals | 22c | 1,143$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.63 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Kansas City Royals | 37c | 496.96$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.61 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6f…be20backed Kansas City Royals | 30c | 342.49$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.76 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Kansas City Royals | 38c | 192.6$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.19 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Chicago White Sox | 62c | 129.03$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.03 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Chicago White Sox | 67c | 126.38$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.53 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Chicago White Sox | 63c | 118$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.66 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Chicago White Sox | 63c | 106.51$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.79 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaac…ff10backed Chicago White Sox | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Kansas City Royals | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Chicago White Sox | 71c | 96.45$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Kansas City Royals | 32c | 84.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Chicago White Sox | 78c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Kansas City Royals | 38c | 79.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Kansas City Royals | 26c | 67.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Chicago White Sox | 62c | 66$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Chicago White Sox | 63c | 61.9$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 467 | 59.7%279 W · 188 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Chicago White Sox | 63c | 55.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 1,374 | 54.2%745 W · 629 L | +16.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Kansas City Royals | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Kansas City Royals | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f7…f399backed Chicago White Sox | 64c | 49.91$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Chicago White Sox | 74c | 43.19$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked Kansas City Royals | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 457 | 49%224 W · 233 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Chicago White Sox | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 241 | 52.7%127 W · 114 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Chicago White Sox | 69c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Chicago White Sox | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Chicago White Sox | 70c | 30.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 573 | 46.9%269 W · 304 L | +14.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Chicago White Sox | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Kansas City Royals | 37c | 28.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Chicago White Sox | 62c | 25.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 316 | 50.6%160 W · 156 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Chicago White Sox | 62c | 22.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Chicago White Sox | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa440…c249backed Chicago White Sox | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef0…d45bbacked Chicago White Sox | 65c | 15.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Chicago White Sox | 74c | 14.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.