TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Chicago White Soxof Kansas City Royals, Chicago White Sox
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,782
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,486

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,782 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Chicago White Sox75c5,867$4,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,478.4510,97951.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L+139.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Kansas City Royals23c3,545$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.698,19246.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L+38.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Kansas City Royals31c1,370$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.973,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Kansas City Royals22c1,143$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.6312,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Kansas City Royals37c496.96$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.611,43550%717 W · 718 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d6f…be20backed Kansas City Royals30c342.49$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.7623454.7%128 W · 106 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Kansas City Royals38c192.6$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.198,40347.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Chicago White Sox62c129.03$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.0366551.1%340 W · 325 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Chicago White Sox67c126.38$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.534,51548.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L-46.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Chicago White Sox63c118$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.664,08757.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L+66.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Chicago White Sox63c106.51$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.792,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbaac…ff10backed Chicago White Sox62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384153.7%22 W · 19 L-4.0wins-0.10per pick63cpaid-18.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ed2…0ddabacked Kansas City Royals39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3957747.7%275 W · 302 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed Chicago White Sox71c96.45$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.242241%173 W · 249 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+1.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Kansas City Royals32c84.24$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0582551.6%426 W · 399 L+3.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Chicago White Sox78c80$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.85,14954.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L+231.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Kansas City Royals38c79.03$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0373748.4%357 W · 380 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Kansas City Royals26c67.66$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.431,26947.4%602 W · 667 L-31.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb81e…8ab9backed Chicago White Sox62c66$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.0847848.5%232 W · 246 L-15.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbe2…6158backed Chicago White Sox63c61.9$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.946759.7%279 W · 188 L+2.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70fc…ab12backed Chicago White Sox63c55.56$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.561,37454.2%745 W · 629 L+16.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e75…0143backed Kansas City Royals38c52.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208240.2%33 W · 49 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed Kansas City Royals38c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191,66143.5%722 W · 939 L-0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32f7…f399backed Chicago White Sox64c49.91$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.973762.2%23 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Chicago White Sox74c43.19$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.065,81243.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L-188.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5101…4a4fbacked Kansas City Royals25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1045749%224 W · 233 L-14.7wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbda3…ef65backed Chicago White Sox63c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.824152.7%127 W · 114 L-0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfff…3d0ebacked Chicago White Sox69c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.626553.2%141 W · 124 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50fd…ee77backed Chicago White Sox62c32.26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2633051.8%171 W · 159 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Chicago White Sox70c30.08$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9457346.9%269 W · 304 L+14.6wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Chicago White Sox68c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5648653.7%261 W · 225 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Kansas City Royals37c28.8$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.653,50951%1,789 W · 1,720 L+53.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07c9…9f5bbacked Chicago White Sox62c25.77$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.7731650.6%160 W · 156 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x973e…22ebbacked Chicago White Sox62c22.58$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.5889950.6%455 W · 444 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Chicago White Sox61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.82,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa440…c249backed Chicago White Sox71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.83339.4%13 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-20.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5ef0…d45bbacked Chicago White Sox65c15.87$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.556549.2%32 W · 33 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Chicago White Sox74c14.04$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.651,52234.7%528 W · 994 L+27.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.