Tennis · resolved market
China Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ad9f24b222d8f20a036e8a70cfcd91e2232d6cbcd46278191dadbee12ed6ca1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Navarroof Swiatek, Navarro
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,613
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,547
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,613 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Navarro | 39c | 7,463$2,947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,516.53 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Navarro | 27c | 5,919$1,573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,346.06 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9b…211dbacked Swiatek | 73c | 2,938$2,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,141.72 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Swiatek | 78c | 2,097$1,637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,637.35 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c54…da75backed Swiatek | 55c | 1,933$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,062.05 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Navarro | 11c | 1,750$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,557.5 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e67…91b0backed Swiatek | 44c | 1,630$721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.1 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Navarro | 16c | 1,354$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,134.48 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Navarro | 74c | 1,073$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.58 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba9…bfaebacked Swiatek | 56c | 1,062$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.3 | 177 | 54.8%97 W · 80 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Navarro | 6c | 1,028$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$964.22 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Swiatek | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Swiatek | 69c | 885.85$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.1 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Navarro | 45c | 805$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.96 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4192…7f00backed Navarro | 8c | 610.65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.8 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Swiatek | 70c | 560.19$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.38 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67a7…86cebacked Swiatek | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x868b…1eb0backed Navarro | 34c | 442.34$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.34 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -11.1wins | -0.27per pick | 49cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x433f…a0dcbacked Navarro | 32c | 437$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.16 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed Swiatek | 62c | 433.19$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.25 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8456…b31dbacked Navarro | 39c | 376.54$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.54 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Navarro | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.33 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb438…b113backed Navarro | 27c | 323$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.79 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Swiatek | 67c | 299.34$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddbc…28c3backed Navarro | 73c | 297$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.19 | 167 | 61.1%102 W · 65 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf97…beb5backed Navarro | 38c | 281.62$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.81 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Navarro | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.27 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed6…d826backed Navarro | 73c | 232.74$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.84 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +155.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Navarro | 34c | 224.42$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.89 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…ff34backed Navarro | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Navarro | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Navarro | 28c | 176.96$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.01 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Swiatek | 62c | 166.74$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.28 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Swiatek | 65c | 153.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d09…dd55backed Swiatek | 57c | 150$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.79 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b98…0e50backed Swiatek | 62c | 137.52$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.26 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…4c0abacked Navarro | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…d4d8backed Swiatek | 21c | 116.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Swiatek | 69c | 111.49$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.93 | 606 | 41.6%252 W · 354 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Swiatek | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Navarro | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5a…5787backed Navarro | 49c | 91.84$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.84 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc269…927dbacked Navarro | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.43 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…6980backed Swiatek | 76c | 60$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.86 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2008…19dabacked Navarro | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacdf…0ec4backed Navarro | 33c | 38.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe49c…773ebacked Swiatek | 59c | 22.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.