Serie A · resolved market
Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1af03fb3484af921a866e6c82540575afc06c3b9d208fd1a67b32ffe9a123e51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Udinese Calcioof Bologna FC 1909, Udinese Calcio
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,295
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,219
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,295 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Udinese Calcio | 75c | 2,742$2,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.45 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Bologna FC 1909 | 25c | 1,006$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.32 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7f…12d5backed Bologna FC 1909 | 26c | 999.98$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.99 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bologna FC 1909 | 26c | 966.94$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.4 | 331 | 48.6%161 W · 170 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…2b04backed Bologna FC 1909 | 26c | 700$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Udinese Calcio | 74c | 667$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.37 | 223 | 48.4%108 W · 115 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Bologna FC 1909 | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Bologna FC 1909 | 26c | 482.27$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.39 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9a…412ebacked Bologna FC 1909 | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Bologna FC 1909 | 15c | 301.74$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.03 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Bologna FC 1909 | 23c | 299.19$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Udinese Calcio | 74c | 293.95$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.43 | 985 | 44.9%442 W · 543 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Udinese Calcio | 74c | 289.52$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.27 | 405 | 49.6%201 W · 204 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Bologna FC 1909 | 26c | 249.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 460 | 47.4%218 W · 242 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Udinese Calcio | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 455 | 47%214 W · 241 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Bologna FC 1909 | 13c | 117.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 168 | 38.1%64 W · 104 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Udinese Calcio | 74c | 105.75$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 145 | 53.1%77 W · 68 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Udinese Calcio | 76c | 41.03$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Udinese Calcio | 73c | 40.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 90 | 78.9%71 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Udinese Calcio | 75c | 25.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Udinese Calcio | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef8…0e7fbacked Udinese Calcio | 77c | 18.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…87d5backed Udinese Calcio | 75c | 17.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-1.5)this page
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Udinese Calcio: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 1.5Under won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 2.5Under won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 3.5Under won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.