Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b2d3e279438b8d257ad2a1da64999561a389ab78c94dc65b0fcbdb390a4cc54
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,433
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,564
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,433 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee24…bd15backed Yes | 34c | 570.75$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.44 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 522.56$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.21 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 27c | 449.37$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.71 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 71c | 334.32$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.42 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 26c | 255.25$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.33 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 74c | 215.92$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.58 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 76c | 208.75$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.8 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 14c | 205.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedee…7139backed Yes | 22c | 193.24$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.62 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe16a…dd6dbacked No | 76c | 131.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47cf…5732backed Yes | 14c | 125.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 70cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 21c | 120.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8327…577dbacked Yes | 28c | 114.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x458e…8034backed Yes | 41c | 109.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.62 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 15c | 109.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb910…11e1backed Yes | 63c | 101.47$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.93 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 76c | 100.61$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed Yes | 27c | 100.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 26c | 93.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 21c | 88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 23c | 66.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe06d…ac24backed Yes | 30c | 65.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -6.3wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3752…e9a7backed Yes | 45c | 63.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked No | 56c | 61.25$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 60.44$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 38c | 56.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 59c | 56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 75c | 54.95$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 49.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 36c | 48.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 69c | 47.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 75c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 44c | 44.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 43.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x815b…a1c7backed Yes | 29c | 38.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 28c | 36.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 33c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 36c | 33.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 73c | 33.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 79c | 31.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 34c | 29.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 69c | 29.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 76c | 28.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 28.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 68c | 25.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2818…1338backed No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c6…94a2backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 72c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 75c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked No | 73c | 17.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 77c | 17.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48a0…f156backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc3…19e0backed No | 76c | 14.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 70°F or higher on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.