Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x561f98cc4263973b7244b92447413bc9c56e114426754badf96d3723c080bf25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,030
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,624
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,030 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 53c | 1,297$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.04 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 4c | 990.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.91 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 58c | 957.16$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.56 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedee…7139backed Yes | 65c | 621.96$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.17 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 31c | 541.19$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.53 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee24…bd15backed Yes | 56c | 474.88$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.38 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 19c | 370.26$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.31 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 39c | 360.16$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.52 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 41c | 242.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.32 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb910…11e1backed Yes | 46c | 237.89$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.46 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 229.67$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.38 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 42c | 215$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.05 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6540…8344backed Yes | 51c | 197.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.79 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 36c | 190$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.39 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 53c | 176$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.24 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadaa…875abacked No | 12c | 173.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked No | 21c | 168.35$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 24c | 158.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 57c | 142.41$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.66 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed No | 43c | 139.72$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 52c | 126$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.87 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 43c | 123.65$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.96 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 48c | 120.75$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.7 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 53c | 99.13$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 38c | 95.46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.35 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 44c | 94$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.93 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 56c | 92.51$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.16 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 57c | 87.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.59 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 34c | 84.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 27c | 81.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.1 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 31c | 80$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d1…dba8backed Yes | 63c | 79.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 48c | 76$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.73 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 49c | 74.4$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.39 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 42c | 70.34$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 29c | 67.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 50c | 65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6f…80adbacked No | 69c | 63.28$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 45c | 62.77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 42c | 60.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.76 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…b1b2backed No | 20c | 59.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 37c | 55.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82e2…ec75backed Yes | 64c | 51.62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47cf…5732backed No | 42c | 51.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 70cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…ae9bbacked No | 45c | 50.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 46c | 50.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 69c | 49.53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 41c | 48.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 34c | 47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 63c | 46.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 44.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 45c | 44.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8327…577dbacked No | 36c | 44.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 36c | 43.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 47c | 42.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 35c | 42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 48c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 48c | 41.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 35c | 39.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 46c | 39.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c38…83d0backed Yes | 41c | 38.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 61c | 38.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 56c | 38.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 32c | 35.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…df0fbacked No | 56c | 35.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 102 | 65.7%67 W · 35 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…6063backed No | 41c | 35.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 59c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…31b1backed Yes | 38c | 34.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 52c | 33.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +13.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73dd…1f06backed Yes | 53c | 29.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 54c | 28.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6136…64f8backed Yes | 56c | 26.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 46c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…b84abacked No | 52c | 22.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc3…19e0backed No | 64c | 21.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 57c | 20.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…90d5backed No | 61c | 16.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff7…a0f0backed No | 62c | 16.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked Yes | 64c | 16.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88fc…2041backed Yes | 67c | 16.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6192…48efbacked Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 70°F or higher on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.