TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,030
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,624

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,030 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes53c1,297$683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.044,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No4c990.98$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.911,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes58c957.16$554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.5665043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedee…7139backed Yes65c621.96$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.176330.2%19 W · 44 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No31c541.19$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.534,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee24…bd15backed Yes56c474.88$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.386636.4%24 W · 42 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+74.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed No19c370.26$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.3146626%121 W · 345 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No39c360.16$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.521,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes41c242.97$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.321,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb910…11e1backed Yes46c237.89$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.461136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick55cpaid-38%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No39c229.67$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.3812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No42c215$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.058,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6540…8344backed Yes51c197.79$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.79683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick61cpaid+28.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes36c190$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.3923436.3%85 W · 149 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No53c176$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.245,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadaa…875abacked No12c173.81$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7313134.4%45 W · 86 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe018…a22dbacked No21c168.35$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.539058.9%53 W · 37 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No24c158.87$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes47c150$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7968335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes57c142.41$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.662,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d33…6be3backed No43c139.72$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6014236.6%52 W · 90 L-0.6wins0.00per pick37cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No52c126$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.874,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No43c123.65$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.962,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No48c120.75$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.761752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes41c100$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No53c99.13$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.51,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes38c95.46$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.351,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x75f3…fe29backed No44c94$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.9352155.3%288 W · 233 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes56c92.51$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.1699962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes57c87.59$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.5945238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No34c84.14$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.764,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8817…cda8backed Yes27c81.46$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.124841.1%102 W · 146 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid+7.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes31c80$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.23,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4d1…dba8backed Yes63c79.65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.65475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52d7…0ff9backed No48c76$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.7338258.9%225 W · 157 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8cd…0d51backed No49c74.4$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3914250.7%72 W · 70 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No42c70.34$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3543859.6%261 W · 177 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No29c67.94$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9589951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0786…df1dbacked No50c65$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4323060.9%140 W · 90 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf6f…80adbacked No69c63.28$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.351573.3%11 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick65cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes45c62.77$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.2416144.1%71 W · 90 L+14.3wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+36.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes42c60.32$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.764,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfb51…b1b2backed No20c59.21$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123941%16 W · 23 L-3.6wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked No37c55.74$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5354043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82e2…ec75backed Yes64c51.62$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.532646.2%12 W · 14 L-3.9wins-0.15per pick61cpaid-23.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x47cf…5732backed No42c51.5$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.476160.7%37 W · 24 L-5.6wins-0.09per pick70cpaid-17.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0520…ae9bbacked No45c50.87$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.116660.6%40 W · 26 L+0.2wins0.00per pick60cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3972…a677backed No46c50.87$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1781756.4%461 W · 356 L-23.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes69c49.53$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes41c48.38$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.6535742.9%153 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes34c47$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.0220230.2%61 W · 141 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+23.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x506c…840cbacked Yes63c46.05$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0615152.3%79 W · 72 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c44.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.442,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked No45c44.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.713,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8327…577dbacked No36c44.04$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.759552.6%50 W · 45 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+1.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc80f…6147backed Yes36c43.9$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.8952533.7%177 W · 348 L+22.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+32%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes47c42.11$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.2266926.2%175 W · 494 L-1.7wins0.00per pick26cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No35c42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.611,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No48c42$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2880050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes48c41.07$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.2344536.2%161 W · 284 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No53c40$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.299963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No35c39.41$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7643563.9%278 W · 157 L+13.6wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcaaa…da37backed No46c39.18$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8444659%263 W · 183 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c38…83d0backed Yes41c38.68$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.685024%12 W · 38 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes61c38.43$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9720358.6%119 W · 84 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes56c38.23$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.891,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No55c36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.84,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed No32c35.64$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.281,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67f4…df0fbacked No56c35.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010265.7%67 W · 35 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick72cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x652d…6063backed No41c35.24$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.479322.6%21 W · 72 L-8.1wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x73e7…8b59backed Yes59c35$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4543441.5%180 W · 254 L+29.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfbfc…31b1backed Yes38c34.56$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5712829.7%38 W · 90 L+7.1wins+0.06per pick24cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3646…ba5abacked Yes52c33.46$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.0540741.3%168 W · 239 L+32.5wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+21.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes57c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.93,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff29…f008backed No41c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.311950.4%60 W · 59 L+13.9wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+18.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No41c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.31,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9008…09f0backed Yes51c29.41$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4111939.5%47 W · 72 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+17.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x73dd…1f06backed Yes53c29.12$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.699639.6%38 W · 58 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No54c28.66$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.480560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6136…64f8backed Yes56c26.97$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.971163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick43cpaid+33.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2e27…9967backed No60c25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1513765.7%90 W · 47 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd85…7a3dbacked No60c25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,05051.2%538 W · 512 L-99.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x85c8…80f8backed No46c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4439158.1%227 W · 164 L-1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x914b…b84abacked No52c22.84$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.887650%38 W · 38 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2dc3…19e0backed No64c21.24$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.61984.2%16 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick71cpaid+17.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes57c20.09$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.579262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0xe0fe…e62abacked Yes65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.123677.1%182 W · 54 L+23.3wins+0.10per pick67cpaid+16.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x81ab…5f31backed Yes50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1028946.4%134 W · 155 L-14.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c15…90d5backed No61c16.78$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.213865.8%25 W · 13 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ff7…a0f0backed No62c16.68$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.312250%11 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b95…898abacked Yes64c16.67$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9630168.8%207 W · 94 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88fc…2041backed Yes67c16.12$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.321770.6%12 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6192…48efbacked Yes75c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.758856.8%50 W · 38 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.