Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: SC Freiburg (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b4a36e01c3f9d17243326c0085db957108f980811a44ca1598981f8d17d5439
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SC Freiburgof SC Freiburg, RC Celta de Vigo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,846
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,955
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,846 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x381e…4fb3backed RC Celta de Vigo | 67c | 1,054$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed SC Freiburg | 12c | 1,045$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$924.43 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc514…e9b4backed SC Freiburg | 31c | 436.18$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.32 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.13per pick | 19cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed SC Freiburg | 41c | 390.95$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.37 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked RC Celta de Vigo | 71c | 224.81$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.61 | 442 | 51.6%228 W · 214 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked SC Freiburg | 65c | 213.39$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.01 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed RC Celta de Vigo | 22c | 121.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…831fbacked RC Celta de Vigo | 17c | 119$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed SC Freiburg | 73c | 19.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 383 | 47.8%183 W · 200 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-2.5)this page
- SC Freiburg vs. RC Celta de Vigo: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SC Freiburg vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 1.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 2.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 3.5Under won
- SC Freiburg vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: RC Celta de Vigo (-1.5)SC Freiburg won
- Spread: RC Celta de Vigo (-2.5)SC Freiburg won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5)SC Freiburg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.