Dota2 · resolved market
MOUZ vs Team Nemesis: Draw (1-1)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b69739e588d4d621eca71ebbff37c71cfa4b5a70ac35207c0fab2e59b312596
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,394
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,546
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,394 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked No | 39c | 1,119$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.4 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 61c | 799.48$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.8 | 237 | 36.7%87 W · 150 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Yes | 58c | 506.82$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.39 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Yes | 38c | 339.56$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.53 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 8%4 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 62c | 236.13$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.49 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 125.82$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.71 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 58c | 112$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.68 | 793 | 41.7%331 W · 462 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…b347backed Yes | 65c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 294 | 66%194 W · 100 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed Yes | 40c | 75.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 224 | 53.1%119 W · 105 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Yes | 57c | 74$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.47 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9015…281fbacked No | 60c | 52.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…2561backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 316 | 59.8%189 W · 127 L | +18.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed No | 26c | 48.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfd…8f39backed No | 43c | 25.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…2ef9backed No | 72c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- MOUZ vs Team Nemesis: Draw (1-1)?this page
- MOUZ to win 2-0?No won
- Team Nemesis to win 2-0?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.