Dota2 · resolved market
MOUZ to win 2-0?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0fea300e2a7209ca775872e1758879cbc113f36b18be78ac14c7d569d7d74146
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,407
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,518
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,407 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d39…6053backed No | 47c | 1,568$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.9 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked No | 45c | 1,552$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855.22 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked No | 48c | 1,407$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.35 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37a1…bedfbacked Yes | 58c | 1,056$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.48 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x249f…fed3backed Yes | 58c | 1,032$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.08 | 626 | 50.5%316 W · 310 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…3e2dbacked No | 38c | 873.53$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.28 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Yes | 62c | 806.45$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 33c | 753.12$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.85 | 237 | 36.7%87 W · 150 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe705…f910backed No | 47c | 550$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5088…cfc5backed Yes | 59c | 453.63$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed Yes | 60c | 400$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed Yes | 52c | 399.08$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.53 | 675 | 55%371 W · 304 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc5…d1a4backed Yes | 59c | 354.59$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.21 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Yes | 62c | 348.81$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.93 | 669 | 47.1%315 W · 354 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2776…4ecbbacked Yes | 61c | 330$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.3 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe66e…946bbacked Yes | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 210 | 43.8%92 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed Yes | 46c | 300$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 630 | 32.5%205 W · 425 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 48c | 236.13$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.02 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa371…eaa5backed Yes | 52c | 235.58$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed No | 48c | 215.97$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.3 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5fa…918bbacked Yes | 36c | 214.44$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed No | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 577 | 35%202 W · 375 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc6…b7babacked Yes | 55c | 195.04$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ee…878ebacked Yes | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked No | 46c | 150$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 117 | 33.3%39 W · 78 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 28c | 146.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.39 | 793 | 41.7%331 W · 462 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d1…ccfebacked Yes | 54c | 146.13$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.91 | 546 | 59.7%326 W · 220 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 48c | 125.58$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.15 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67bb…b6efbacked Yes | 59c | 120$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 281 | 59.8%168 W · 113 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc70…8be9backed No | 41c | 120$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.8 | 253 | 54.5%138 W · 115 L | +13.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed No | 77c | 117.21$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…fc1fbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15bc…4a7ebacked No | 49c | 74.85$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…8ff2backed Yes | 50c | 67.44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 476 | 46.4%221 W · 255 L | +27.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 48c | 55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.45 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a2…a9bfbacked Yes | 56c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 194 | 55.7%108 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked No | 44c | 35.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f6f…1284backed Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 79 | 64.6%51 W · 28 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c81…b51cbacked Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 67 | 67.2%45 W · 22 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c4…bbfbbacked Yes | 52c | 26.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- MOUZ to win 2-0?this page
- MOUZ vs Team Nemesis: Draw (1-1)?Yes won
- Team Nemesis to win 2-0?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.