Fifa International · resolved market
Will Senegal vs. Botswana end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b7678a69ddb602443141c6ab76e8ea2e13f4d6ddfb08ae48883d7b31ccb3783
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,985
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,499
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,985 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8dc6…22a3backed Yes | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 12c | 3,093$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.42 | 203 | 22.7%46 W · 157 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d43…bc5ebacked Yes | 14c | 2,955$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.73 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 16c | 2,283$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.36 | 760 | 48.7%370 W · 390 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd05f…8777backed Yes | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Yes | 10c | 1,565$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.52 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 10c | 1,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 224 | 21%47 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17b9…430dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,223$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 31cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes | 10c | 1,029$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.91 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 11c | 793$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.71 | 300 | 31%93 W · 207 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92c…d27ebacked Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 176 | 64.8%114 W · 62 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23e6…7bbfbacked Yes | 10c | 499.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 177 | 27.1%48 W · 129 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a55…fd0dbacked Yes | 5c | 425.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 13c | 350.79$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.59 | 673 | 54.7%368 W · 305 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…3d27backed Yes | 5c | 312.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b71…ca50backed Yes | 4c | 255.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a7…9ea8backed Yes | 4c | 249.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed Yes | 14c | 244.51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | -10.0wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -12%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2e…bfa2backed Yes | 10c | 199.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b21…41fabacked Yes | 9c | 191.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Yes | 16c | 152$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 14c | 149.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2d…430dbacked Yes | 8c | 139$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…9561backed Yes | 13c | 138.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 11c | 131$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb1…38adbacked Yes | 8c | 130$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea61…cc32backed Yes | 9c | 122.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…6ba8backed Yes | 15c | 104$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…c8c0backed Yes | 12c | 104$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…3a09backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98d…3560backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…a852backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e24…c7e6backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x604d…4608backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Senegal vs. Botswana end in a draw?this page
- Will Botswana win on 2025-12-23?No won
- Will Senegal win on 2025-12-23?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.