Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b98203300394f92d10e3bc63a51e13fca970aed20cf6240c408ec47e75fdb49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nemiga Gamingof Nemiga Gaming, Inner Circle
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,543
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,028
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,543 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a05…12a2backed Inner Circle | 16c | 4,770$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.11 | 476 | 50.8%242 W · 234 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Nemiga Gaming | 50c | 4,122$2,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,058.51 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b0…329ebacked Inner Circle | 53c | 2,466$1,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,315.52 | 802 | 56%449 W · 353 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Inner Circle | 51c | 1,530$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.71 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed Inner Circle | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Inner Circle | 53c | 992.86$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.73 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…89babacked Nemiga Gaming | 57c | 975.49$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.76 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x149a…49d0backed Nemiga Gaming | 53c | 927.73$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.03 | 507 | 69.2%351 W · 156 L | +33.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Inner Circle | 49c | 812.56$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.65 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Nemiga Gaming | 58c | 758.12$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.34 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Nemiga Gaming | 47c | 664.93$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.27 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd83…7d7cbacked Inner Circle | 54c | 649.11$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.4 | 147 | 47.6%70 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Nemiga Gaming | 57c | 475.57$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.68 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc9…e444backed Inner Circle | 26c | 468.1$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.56 | 132 | 28.8%38 W · 94 L | -9.7wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -40%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Nemiga Gaming | 53c | 419.17$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.29 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Nemiga Gaming | 49c | 407.47$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.38 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41a6…fbadbacked Inner Circle | 54c | 371.41$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.46 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeea8…0412backed Nemiga Gaming | 50c | 358.9$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.45 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Inner Circle | 16c | 341.86$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.94 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b84…2f73backed Nemiga Gaming | 48c | 302.75$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.43 | 116 | 48.3%56 W · 60 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed Nemiga Gaming | 50c | 295.85$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.93 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4d95backed Nemiga Gaming | 48c | 287.77$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.64 | 446 | 45.7%204 W · 242 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Nemiga Gaming | 54c | 266.84$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.33 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…85c6backed Inner Circle | 52c | 225.81$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.52 | 293 | 47.4%139 W · 154 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee3…7c36backed Nemiga Gaming | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 241 | 31.5%76 W · 165 L | -11.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…26edbacked Nemiga Gaming | 49c | 199.98$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.99 | 338 | 67.8%229 W · 109 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…77dcbacked Inner Circle | 53c | 198.53$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.25 | 292 | 40.4%118 W · 174 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed Nemiga Gaming | 64c | 194.83$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.4 | 470 | 46.6%219 W · 251 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Nemiga Gaming | 48c | 193.76$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.76 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Nemiga Gaming | 47c | 188.25$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.7 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06d9…7cfbbacked Nemiga Gaming | 48c | 176.82$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.15 | 201 | 51.2%103 W · 98 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Nemiga Gaming | 46c | 175$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.8 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Nemiga Gaming | 60c | 167.74$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.75 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x127e…cca1backed Nemiga Gaming | 54c | 162.63$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.11 | 461 | 50.8%234 W · 227 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Inner Circle | 50c | 162.17$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.49 | 109 | 61.5%67 W · 42 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6af6…c777backed Inner Circle | 51c | 142.53$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.69 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…edbabacked Nemiga Gaming | 71c | 128.32$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.01 | 430 | 49.1%211 W · 219 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85b2…0ab9backed Nemiga Gaming | 48c | 127.86$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.84 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3892…4093backed Inner Circle | 52c | 116.64$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 149 | 55.7%83 W · 66 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4f…f538backed Nemiga Gaming | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +11.0wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed Nemiga Gaming | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 675 | 55%371 W · 304 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27e9…f09ebacked Nemiga Gaming | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x387e…ca5dbacked Nemiga Gaming | 50c | 97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 118 | 57.6%68 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…73edbacked Inner Circle | 27c | 89.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 372 | 23.1%86 W · 286 L | -38.2wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Inner Circle | 53c | 88.26$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.76 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75c1…22e4backed Nemiga Gaming | 59c | 70.97$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3091…748dbacked Inner Circle | 31c | 70.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 189 | 23.8%45 W · 144 L | -13.7wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x672d…dbd7backed Nemiga Gaming | 48c | 60.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 400 | 47.5%190 W · 210 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Inner Circle | 51c | 59.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53f9…e920backed Inner Circle | 53c | 54.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x839f…c2cebacked Inner Circle | 48c | 50.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Inner Circle | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Nemiga Gaming | 52c | 48.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa306…a39dbacked Inner Circle | 53c | 47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 105 | 61%64 W · 41 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Inner Circle | 24c | 46.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 245 | 18.8%46 W · 199 L | -31.2wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -46%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Inner Circle | 51c | 39.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +8.1wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x899e…0863backed Nemiga Gaming | 56c | 34.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 264 | 54.5%144 W · 120 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…9111backed Nemiga Gaming | 53c | 34.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22d6…b7b5backed Nemiga Gaming | 46c | 27.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Nemiga Gaming | 80c | 27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Nemiga Gaming | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 360 | 44.2%159 W · 201 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Nemiga Gaming | 70c | 24.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Inner Circle | 45c | 23.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…0f5cbacked Inner Circle | 51c | 22.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 582 | 50.5%294 W · 288 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…10aabacked Inner Circle | 54c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 279 | 52.3%146 W · 133 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Nemiga Gaming | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 302 | 50%151 W · 151 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…a518backed Nemiga Gaming | 73c | 13.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Inner Circle (BO3) - European Pro League PlayoffsNemiga Gaming won
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Inner Circle - Game 2 WinnerInner Circle won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.