Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs South America Rejects (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b9e7349ec85b5d402c0e767f2fffc9af1eb7dc1a4d0f658f5b5ec20720143e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Liquidof Team Liquid, South America Rejects
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,359
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,180
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,359 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked South America Rejects | 55c | 4,231$2,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,327.04 | 345 | 44.3%153 W · 192 L | -15.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5038…6236backed Team Liquid | 45c | 4,138$1,861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,276.82 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc6e…fa6fbacked Team Liquid | 49c | 1,044$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.58 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x115f…e217backed South America Rejects | 55c | 861.04$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.5 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked South America Rejects | 50c | 504.2$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.06 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe59…0d2ebacked South America Rejects | 54c | 400$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 162 | 43.2%70 W · 92 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b63…4acdbacked South America Rejects | 51c | 372.8$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.13 | 162 | 48.8%79 W · 83 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5051…82a6backed Team Liquid | 48c | 360.26$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.98 | 204 | 52.5%107 W · 97 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb635…bef0backed Team Liquid | 45c | 275$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.25 | 303 | 36.6%111 W · 192 L | -18.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Team Liquid | 45c | 222.03$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.04 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…07fdbacked South America Rejects | 57c | 220.37$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.68 | 243 | 49%119 W · 124 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8105…a0a5backed Team Liquid | 49c | 199.25$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.33 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Team Liquid | 59c | 182.01$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x595c…3b03backed South America Rejects | 55c | 145.95$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.27 | 108 | 52.8%57 W · 51 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Team Liquid | 56c | 122.09$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.12 | 273 | 57.1%156 W · 117 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3375…ba50backed Team Liquid | 54c | 100.78$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Team Liquid | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 267 | 41.9%112 W · 155 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9d…9b0ebacked South America Rejects | 56c | 83.66$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 311 | 26%81 W · 230 L | -17.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed South America Rejects | 39c | 79.05$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | -12.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -18%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Team Liquid | 43c | 61.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.27 | 198 | 57.1%113 W · 85 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02e9…443bbacked Team Liquid | 51c | 59.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb04d…2b19backed South America Rejects | 56c | 52.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc313…6645backed Team Liquid | 43c | 49.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 210 | 51%107 W · 103 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed South America Rejects | 56c | 47.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 395 | 59%233 W · 162 L | +18.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked South America Rejects | 45c | 46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 350 | 32.3%113 W · 237 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed South America Rejects | 45c | 46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…ab49backed South America Rejects | 55c | 44.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc22a…a35cbacked South America Rejects | 56c | 43.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 135 | 40.7%55 W · 80 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…de3dbacked South America Rejects | 56c | 43.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 115 | 34.8%40 W · 75 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ec…2b5ebacked Team Liquid | 45c | 42.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc671…b0c7backed South America Rejects | 38c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked South America Rejects | 58c | 39.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed South America Rejects | 58c | 36.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed South America Rejects | 50c | 36.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…df0ebacked Team Liquid | 46c | 31.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Team Liquid | 62c | 27.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked South America Rejects | 44c | 23.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 405 | 34.6%140 W · 265 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs South America Rejects (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs South America Rejects (BO3) - PGL Wallachia PlayoffsTeam Liquid won
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs South America Rejects - Game 1 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs South America Rejects - Game 2 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.