Australian A League · resolved market
Sydney FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ba2c5826ef28159e7075379f6554b737726a82cb36accf3e393d2fbf175d681
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,748
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,889
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,748 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Under | 61c | 5,000$3,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,949.82 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 38c | 3,663$1,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,403.56 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 61c | 1,404$853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.69 | 147 | 55.1%81 W · 66 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d54…4d13backed Over | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.6wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 27c | 743.25$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a84…0e54backed Over | 11c | 599.98$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 40c | 400.75$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.3 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -7.3wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 37c | 350$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Under | 62c | 179.99$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Over | 39c | 154$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x981f…8993backed Over | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 78c | 110.83$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 19c | 106.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | -10.2wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 22c | 99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 22c | 93.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 12c | 87.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 12c | 84.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 247 | 32.4%80 W · 167 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Under | 63c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 60c | 76.3$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 37c | 71.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5e…494fbacked Over | 38c | 28.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Over | 39c | 27.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5544backed Under | 61c | 25.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Under | 80c | 18.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sydney FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Sydney FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Sydney FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Sydney FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Sydney FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.