Mls · resolved market
Real Salt Lake vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1bbd903a0d5d2e80b8f7b637bd25dec876541eb1c5244d2faef12ea23396b4f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,709
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,566
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,709 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38c3…6603backed Over | 16c | 1,481$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,243.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 18cpaid | +241.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 16c | 1,250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 53c | 1,058$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.27 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 16c | 807.12$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.65 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 32c | 702.87$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.98 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 55c | 700$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e8…88a4backed Over | 62c | 450$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 78c | 344.53$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.94 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d93…b34dbacked Over | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4871…0742backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 42c | 177.5$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.91 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 25c | 136.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.87 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 36c | 103$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.06 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…7fe2backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 55c | 95.3$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.29 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 24c | 85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 54c | 73.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x64fd…f7aebacked Over | 74c | 71$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 54c | 65.9$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 78c | 59$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 206 | 48.5%100 W · 106 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 50c | 56.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 55c | 32.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Over | 49c | 30.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 61cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 53c | 28.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd7…d5a3backed Over | 59c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d62…49c5backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +76.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe29c…a31dbacked Over | 54c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Salt Lake vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 1.5this page
- Real Salt Lake vs. Houston Dynamo: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Real Salt Lake vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 2.5Over won
- Real Salt Lake vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 3.5Under won
- Real Salt Lake vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Dynamo (-1.5)Real Salt Lake won
- Spread: Houston Dynamo (-2.5)Real Salt Lake won
- Spread: Real Salt Lake (-1.5)Real Salt Lake won
- Spread: Real Salt Lake (-2.5)Real Salt Lake won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.