Mls · resolved market
Spread: Real Salt Lake (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f62019ea2841f5634577ea1532648ea956b46d5e230e8b8947e361532949380
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Real Salt Lakeof Real Salt Lake, Houston Dynamo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,433
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,328
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,433 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Houston Dynamo | 66c | 2,000$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,319.99 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Houston Dynamo | 66c | 1,974$1,307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,307.48 | 186 | 51.6%96 W · 90 L | +11.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Real Salt Lake | 33c | 1,805$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,216.33 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Real Salt Lake | 34c | 816.35$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.09 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Real Salt Lake | 34c | 737.12$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.71 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c8…d919backed Houston Dynamo | 69c | 637.34$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +184.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Houston Dynamo | 66c | 609.99$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.8 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Real Salt Lake | 31c | 452.2$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.51 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Real Salt Lake | 34c | 440.74$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.35 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Houston Dynamo | 68c | 428.15$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.14 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -6.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Houston Dynamo | 66c | 376.31$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.61 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Houston Dynamo | 28c | 300$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 103 | 19.4%20 W · 83 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Real Salt Lake | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Houston Dynamo | 69c | 179.8$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.46 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Houston Dynamo | 62c | 139.89$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.33 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bf…f0ccbacked Real Salt Lake | 39c | 127.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.92 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Houston Dynamo | 65c | 106.4$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.61 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Houston Dynamo | 65c | 99.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.99 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Real Salt Lake | 53c | 99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.48 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Houston Dynamo | 53c | 91.41$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.57 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Houston Dynamo | 67c | 89.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.29 | 248 | 59.3%147 W · 101 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Real Salt Lake | 34c | 69.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.1 | 106 | 55.7%59 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Houston Dynamo | 67c | 65.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.21 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked Houston Dynamo | 69c | 65.22$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 63cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Houston Dynamo | 66c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Houston Dynamo | 69c | 58.86$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…f14dbacked Real Salt Lake | 36c | 55.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…390dbacked Real Salt Lake | 33c | 54.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.28 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Houston Dynamo | 67c | 46.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Real Salt Lake | 37c | 43.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3e…88a4backed Houston Dynamo | 67c | 31.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Houston Dynamo | 65c | 30.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x623a…5144backed Houston Dynamo | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Houston Dynamo | 67c | 29.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…862dbacked Houston Dynamo | 68c | 26.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Houston Dynamo | 66c | 22.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 61cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Houston Dynamo | 66c | 21.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17b6…af55backed Houston Dynamo | 67c | 20.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6444…672ebacked Houston Dynamo | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6472…81e3backed Houston Dynamo | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Real Salt Lake (-1.5)this page
- Real Salt Lake vs. Houston Dynamo: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Real Salt Lake vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Salt Lake vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 2.5Over won
- Real Salt Lake vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 3.5Under won
- Real Salt Lake vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Dynamo (-1.5)Real Salt Lake won
- Spread: Houston Dynamo (-2.5)Real Salt Lake won
- Spread: Real Salt Lake (-2.5)Real Salt Lake won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.