World Politics · resolved market
Will Starmer say "Defense" during the next PMQ?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c3ce14092067068ff3923d905fb2058e18f732c0285548ef9845b7df912a74a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,319
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,456
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,319 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa8e0…70e2backed No | 50c | 131.74$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.87 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 24c | 127.26$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc972…dcd9backed No | 48c | 108.08$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.62 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Yes | 67c | 99.6$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 77c | 72$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 22c | 70.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 70c | 61$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x54a5…d72bbacked No | 35c | 54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8a…1f78backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…cf85backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe42e…a252backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4460…54d1backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03b3…9a65backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -58%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3e…ea35backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +99.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6464…99adbacked Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58e9…441abacked Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53f8…f76ebacked Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 41cpaid | +128.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x15e1…1b3dbacked Yes | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…17a6backed Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2712…eb71backed No | 39c | 39.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 79c | 23.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…56cfbacked Yes | 68c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…6b2bbacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -29%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…9e24backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Starmer say "Defense" during the next PMQ?this page
- Will Starmer say "Ban" during the next PMQ?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Constituent" or "Constituency" during the next PMQ?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Deep" or "Deeply" during the next PMQ?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Green" during the next PMQ?No won
- Will Starmer say "Hate" or "Hatred" during the next PMQ?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Labour" during the next PMQ?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 5+ times during the next PMQ?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next PMQ?No won
- Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 30+ times during the next PMQ?No won
- Will Starmer say "NHS" 3+ times during the next PMQ?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Record Investment" during the next PMQ?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during the next PMQ?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Shadow" during the next PMQ?No won
- Will Starmer say "Social Media" during the next PMQ?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Thank" 5+ times during the next PMQ?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Trump" during the next PMQ?No won
- Will Starmer say "Victim" during the next PMQ?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.