World Politics · resolved market
Will Starmer say "Hate" or "Hatred" during the next PMQ?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf85cca754be12449a9e5aaccf7226db38d2a4311d6bd058a3fd05e17d84e6464
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,160
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,350
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,160 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 50c | 639.59$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.34 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bef…3b06backed Yes | 49c | 322.58$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.52 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba4…f8c2backed Yes | 45c | 154.4$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.51 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca8…ecd4backed No | 64c | 140$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +140.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 60c | 120$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70c2…4063backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a95…6ab2backed Yes | 41c | 61.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…6b2bbacked Yes | 44c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -29%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 66c | 36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x676f…c546backed Yes | 40c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4e…b38cbacked No | 55c | 34.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c14…8da1backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +98%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x052c…4793backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…cb3cbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdb…8a82backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…f88ebacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…9065backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -4.4wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Starmer say "Hate" or "Hatred" during the next PMQ?this page
- Will Starmer say "Ban" during the next PMQ?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Constituent" or "Constituency" during the next PMQ?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Deep" or "Deeply" during the next PMQ?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Defense" during the next PMQ?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Green" during the next PMQ?No won
- Will Starmer say "Labour" during the next PMQ?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 5+ times during the next PMQ?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next PMQ?No won
- Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 30+ times during the next PMQ?No won
- Will Starmer say "NHS" 3+ times during the next PMQ?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Record Investment" during the next PMQ?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during the next PMQ?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Shadow" during the next PMQ?No won
- Will Starmer say "Social Media" during the next PMQ?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Thank" 5+ times during the next PMQ?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Trump" during the next PMQ?No won
- Will Starmer say "Victim" during the next PMQ?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.