NFL · resolved market
Spread: MIN (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c487de8e458ea69f6d408dd4b224ff621b82013add304642b84f983495dc433
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MINof MIN, NYG
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,120
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,119
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,120 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked NYG | 50c | 1,558$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.04 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed MIN | 50c | 1,300$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645 | 266 | 50.8%135 W · 131 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed MIN | 48c | 1,025$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.07 | 81 | 56.8%46 W · 35 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed NYG | 53c | 900$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -6.6wins | -0.39per pick | 50cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed MIN | 47c | 600$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed NYG | 51c | 133$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.33 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked NYG | 50c | 123.56$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.14 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed NYG | 54c | 91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.58 | 113 | 58.4%66 W · 47 L | +10.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed NYG | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked NYG | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked MIN | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked MIN | 48c | 21.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 133 | 39.8%53 W · 80 L | -10.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: MIN (-2.5)this page
- MIN vs. NYG: O/U 38.5Under won
- MIN vs. NYG: O/U 40.5Under won
- MIN vs. NYG: O/U 41.5Under won
- Spread: MIN (-1.5)MIN won
- Spread: MIN (-3.5)NYG won
- Vikings vs. GiantsVikings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.