NFL · resolved market
Spread: MIN (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd03ff234334a57d8845da1c853f5ae2d2010150dd0c8cd1aff32d1b4be4200e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MINof MIN, NYG
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,808
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,007
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,808 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked MIN | 50c | 3,209$1,605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,604.5 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed NYG | 50c | 2,222$1,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,111 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed MIN | 51c | 700$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341 | 266 | 50.8%135 W · 131 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed NYG | 49c | 671.23$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.76 | 81 | 56.8%46 W · 35 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked NYG | 50c | 512$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed NYG | 50c | 186.16$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.08 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed NYG | 49c | 122.48$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.78 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked NYG | 50c | 115$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.64 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed NYG | 47c | 78.74$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -6.6wins | -0.39per pick | 50cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc429…1c89backed NYG | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked MIN | 53c | 43.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 119 | 58%69 W · 50 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked NYG | 50c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked NYG | 49c | 32.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked MIN | 60c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed MIN | 58c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: MIN (-1.5)this page
- MIN vs. NYG: O/U 38.5Under won
- MIN vs. NYG: O/U 40.5Under won
- MIN vs. NYG: O/U 41.5Under won
- Spread: MIN (-2.5)MIN won
- Spread: MIN (-3.5)NYG won
- Vikings vs. GiantsVikings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.