Ligue 1 · resolved market
OGC Nice vs. FC Lorient: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c7200d0533b0464114e6516d5fca2974e69f3750e47821ac4e95c321f868e82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,574
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,109
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,574 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 66c | 1,242$826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.57 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 768.21$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.06 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 34c | 387.28$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.51 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 58c | 348.05$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.18 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 69c | 277.44$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.59 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Over | 13c | 261.54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.54 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 36c | 196.03$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.83 | 150 | 48.7%73 W · 77 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3798…2e72backed Over | 10c | 170$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b90…c258backed Under | 57c | 160$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.25 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 33c | 100.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Over | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 42c | 58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.64 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e31…a753backed Over | 28c | 53.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.47 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 34c | 51.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 35c | 40.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 452 | 33.6%152 W · 300 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Under | 58c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…d35fbacked Over | 75c | 16.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…ef6bbacked Over | 73c | 13.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- OGC Nice vs. FC Lorient: O/U 4.5this page
- OGC Nice vs. FC Lorient: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- OGC Nice vs. FC Lorient: O/U 1.5Over won
- OGC Nice vs. FC Lorient: O/U 2.5Over won
- OGC Nice vs. FC Lorient: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.