Ligue 1 · resolved market
OGC Nice vs. FC Lorient: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56dce7abd9a6aa9a72347996a49cc5a2de8c8e6f9d990e544207ce4125161e50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,793
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,691
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,793 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 2,273$1,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,075.76 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 79c | 949.35$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.36 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 80c | 834.2$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.2 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 49c | 373.49$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.08 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Over | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.37 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 36c | 282.88$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.2 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 26c | 228.19$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.65 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e80dbacked Over | 72c | 208.33$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee26…9dcabacked Over | 26c | 200$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +53%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 39c | 120.14$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.69 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 51c | 112.71$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.45 | 486 | 49%238 W · 248 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Under | 20c | 110$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Over | 30c | 98.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.48 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 73c | 68.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 20c | 67.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 452 | 33.6%152 W · 300 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab90…5793backed Over | 79c | 63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 44c | 61.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 150 | 48.7%73 W · 77 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96d4…994cbacked Over | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc4…3479backed Under | 70c | 58$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 71cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 109 | 52.3%57 W · 52 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Over | 27c | 44.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3181…60d1backed Under | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 35c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 183 | 60.7%111 W · 72 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Over | 38c | 28.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 66c | 25.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507a…be1fbacked Under | 71c | 16.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- OGC Nice vs. FC Lorient: O/U 3.5this page
- OGC Nice vs. FC Lorient: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- OGC Nice vs. FC Lorient: O/U 1.5Over won
- OGC Nice vs. FC Lorient: O/U 2.5Over won
- OGC Nice vs. FC Lorient: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.