Ligue 1 · resolved market
OGC Nice vs. FC Lorient: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35dd048bca8d19e1cda108e74e5ba42052e5d2825c072f81c07f559dc020d202
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,373
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,921
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,373 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 51c | 5,915$3,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,016.9 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3102…187cbacked Over | 51c | 2,999$1,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,469.66 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 47c | 2,930$1,377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,552.67 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 52c | 2,561$1,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,331.62 | 376 | 38.8%146 W · 230 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 48c | 2,500$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 49c | 2,200$1,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,122 | 310 | 49.4%153 W · 157 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 1,938$937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936.93 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a0…e723backed Under | 53c | 1,887$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a73…1660backed Under | 53c | 1,887$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 49c | 1,029$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.59 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Over | 53c | 800$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Under | 51c | 735.03$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.85 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -4.8wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x548c…9d1fbacked Under | 48c | 705.67$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.36 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x66e1…0f14backed Under | 48c | 674.88$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.94 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 53c | 314.09$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.74 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Over | 47c | 299.99$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.99 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Over | 52c | 296.08$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.59 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 52c | 279.71$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.4 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 50c | 254.8$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.45 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Under | 47c | 251.53$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.22 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 49c | 239$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.89 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 48c | 200.74$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.38 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa374…9709backed Over | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 92 | 62%57 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993a…1e2fbacked Over | 42c | 163.25$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.94 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 42c | 127$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.66 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed Under | 47c | 127$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.69 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 240 | 51.7%124 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373b…1107backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 53c | 94.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.11 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…19c5backed Over | 43c | 81.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.95 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f8…e913backed Under | 42c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Over | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…0d47backed Over | 41c | 74.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.74 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +91.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x117a…a264backed Over | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe363…c894backed Over | 48c | 55.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 109 | 52.3%57 W · 52 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 53c | 48.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 452 | 33.6%152 W · 300 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 50c | 47.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 299 | 49.8%149 W · 150 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 48c | 47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed Under | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 92 | 46.7%43 W · 49 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…3047backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Over | 50c | 39.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f57…770ebacked Over | 50c | 31.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 51c | 31.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 380 | 56.6%215 W · 165 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 57c | 31.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 486 | 49%238 W · 248 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 183 | 60.7%111 W · 72 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Over | 49c | 22.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 142 | 47.9%68 W · 74 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Over | 49c | 22.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5558…f9c4backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 208 | 60.6%126 W · 82 L | +12.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- OGC Nice vs. FC Lorient: O/U 2.5this page
- OGC Nice vs. FC Lorient: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- OGC Nice vs. FC Lorient: O/U 1.5Over won
- OGC Nice vs. FC Lorient: O/U 3.5Over won
- OGC Nice vs. FC Lorient: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.