MLB · resolved market
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c965a53293bc44af14a7570ee50ed48edf01e64488dfe330259e6343a136d5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof Houston Astros, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,148
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,347
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,148 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Houston Astros | 39c | 947.08$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.36 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 840.85$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.93 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Houston Astros | 23c | 577.48$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.8 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed St. Louis Cardinals | 79c | 560.5$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.06 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Houston Astros | 34c | 299.18$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.53 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 192.51$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 115.11$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.19 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 76c | 111.46$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Houston Astros | 40c | 107.92$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.17 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Houston Astros | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…cea6backed St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 97.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.09 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 67c | 88.39$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 86.42$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed St. Louis Cardinals | 67c | 82.34$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Houston Astros | 39c | 66.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 529 | 55.6%294 W · 235 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…cddbbacked Houston Astros | 41c | 64.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 50.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Houston Astros | 39c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Houston Astros | 36c | 45.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Houston Astros | 32c | 34.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Houston Astros | 39c | 28.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed St. Louis Cardinals | 66c | 27.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Houston Astros | 40c | 26.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 21.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 17.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 17.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 418 | 47.6%199 W · 219 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)this page
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston AstrosSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston AstrosNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.