MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd30217f38bb86febae4f967055d8bd5ba00811b39e8a6fa7d7d9fcb925447dff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,115
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,906
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,115 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 2,326$1,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,093.64 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 53c | 1,667$883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.36 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Under | 48c | 1,184$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.25 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Over | 52c | 1,013$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.31 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 48c | 1,010$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Over | 53c | 958.24$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.61 | 308 | 44.2%136 W · 172 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 66c | 827.22$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.52 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 41c | 801.66$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.98 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…b384backed Over | 52c | 738.56$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.51 | 577 | 44.7%258 W · 319 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 39c | 528.02$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.41 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2e…9d0bbacked Over | 49c | 520.99$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.71 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 63c | 501.15$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.09 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…cea6backed Under | 53c | 500.18$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.09 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 51c | 409$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.41 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Under | 49c | 396.48$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.28 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 47c | 393.52$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.95 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3354…5042backed Over | 52c | 373.54$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.3 | 203 | 50.2%102 W · 101 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 21c | 299.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.99 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…d922backed Under | 14c | 296.74$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.54 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 7cpaid | +162.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 77c | 293.23$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.69 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…15eebacked Under | 11c | 225$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 82 | 15.9%13 W · 69 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 59c | 224.49$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.36 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Under | 49c | 207.73$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.79 | 222 | 48.6%108 W · 114 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 51c | 204$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.96 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 49c | 199.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.99 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2f…d6dfbacked Under | 49c | 199.04$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 49c | 197.76$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.9 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Over | 52c | 188.15$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.05 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 37c | 184.93$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.22 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb549…c2b6backed Over | 53c | 183.96$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.79 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 48c | 140.75$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.56 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 51c | 120$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 59c | 112.17$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.18 | 418 | 47.6%199 W · 219 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 51c | 98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Under | 80c | 93.75$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 529 | 55.6%294 W · 235 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 42c | 90.7$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.37 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 59c | 82.66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.77 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 45c | 76.13$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.09 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…a518backed Under | 48c | 73.11$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 114 | 51.8%59 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 48c | 64.32$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 63c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Over | 37c | 57.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 48c | 48.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Under | 57c | 42.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Under | 58c | 42.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a1…3a92backed Under | 48c | 40.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Over | 51c | 38.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 241 | 52.7%127 W · 114 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Over | 51c | 38.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 53c | 36.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 58c | 36.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca9…0898backed Over | 53c | 35.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 49c | 35.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Under | 48c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 59c | 31.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc816…7a20backed Over | 51c | 28.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…3d4dbacked Under | 48c | 26.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 174 | 50.6%88 W · 86 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cc…3132backed Over | 52c | 25.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Over | 51c | 24.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Under | 57c | 22.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 273 | 54.6%149 W · 124 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked Over | 52c | 21.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 216 | 56%121 W · 95 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 49c | 20.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 52c | 20.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 361 | 57.9%209 W · 152 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Under | 53c | 20.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33eb…b07ebacked Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1643…6ec8backed Under | 64c | 19.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 80c | 13.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston AstrosSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston AstrosNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.