Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ca542faa866c7dd9cdb7569f373b8c4844d6c8f42a8f2fb8fcf8f74c29a556f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,698
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,602
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,698 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac28…f2d4backed Yes | 8c | 1,168$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.92 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 823.61$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.56 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0af2…ce86backed No | 80c | 753.4$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.04 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7af1…5a2dbacked Yes | 12c | 681.76$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.91 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33f2…4fc0backed Yes | 17c | 586.98$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.69 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 23c | 573.13$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.16 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 16c | 494.38$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.08 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 4c | 438.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 19c | 426.53$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.32 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6260…6b21backed Yes | 26c | 414.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.96 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 15c | 370.22$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.59 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 64c | 311.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.32 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42e1…8148backed Yes | 11c | 293.35$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 70c | 289.09$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.82 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4682…4d40backed Yes | 5c | 273.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 6c | 251.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 36c | 246.39$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.48 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a52…baafbacked Yes | 38c | 233.17$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.8 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac5…852cbacked Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 19c | 195.14$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 16c | 190.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…2acabacked Yes | 16c | 189.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 20c | 159.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec83…7014backed Yes | 9c | 155.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 151.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 17c | 136.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4414…d74cbacked No | 76c | 134.48$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 14c | 133.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 15c | 130$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbad3…7715backed Yes | 15c | 126$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 27c | 119.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe46…cb39backed Yes | 13c | 114.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 110.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x13f4…93cbbacked Yes | 18c | 104.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 21c | 98.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed Yes | 20c | 98.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…64b6backed Yes | 24c | 93.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28d9…7275backed Yes | 13c | 90.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 60c | 84.97$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.09 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 22c | 84.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 36c | 79.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80b3…e5d9backed No | 80c | 73.56$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 80c | 72.26$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 21c | 69.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 27c | 68.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 31c | 62.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabea…3257backed No | 80c | 49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 64 | 73.4%47 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed Yes | 33c | 43.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 29c | 41.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa9…1a52backed No | 75c | 39.08$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce58…f7a9backed No | 76c | 37.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed No | 65c | 34.81$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x185b…0f27backed Yes | 35c | 34.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 40c | 31.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e5…b209backed Yes | 36c | 28.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | -12.8wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3c83…e83ebacked No | 63c | 26.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5df…bc23backed No | 79c | 24.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 73c | 15.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2f…5f61backed No | 78c | 13.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or higher on April 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.