Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf64d8450a96b1d0c8c20b89a72d8e7754f001c24eede230b3dddaa78cc742b48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,997
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,750
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,997 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 6c | 1,181$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.29 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 20c | 878.48$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.08 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 8c | 823.56$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.89 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 17c | 664.52$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.52 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 9c | 647.65$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.23 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 18c | 520.14$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.06 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 10c | 439.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.17 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 9c | 417.74$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 5c | 406.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked No | 70c | 377.37$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.68 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac28…f2d4backed No | 72c | 374.22$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.33 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 7c | 324.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 64c | 305.94$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.14 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 69c | 279.52$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.69 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a52…baafbacked No | 74c | 265.84$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.18 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 7c | 214.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 12c | 208.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 73c | 200.9$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.41 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes | 8c | 198.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 6c | 190.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…6822backed Yes | 9c | 184.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d83…d948backed No | 65c | 181.29$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.45 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 73c | 173.01$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.99 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 16c | 169.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 32c | 153.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.12 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 16c | 140.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf096…28a8backed Yes | 27c | 138.94$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.17 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 11c | 138.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6430…fb2fbacked Yes | 36c | 137.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 15c | 137.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53b7…2f45backed Yes | 31c | 119.81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 16c | 119.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 23c | 119.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 17c | 118.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 33c | 106.57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 32c | 103.82$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed Yes | 34c | 100.05$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…0190backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd88…dadbbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…9bedbacked Yes | 31c | 98.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90a8…7a97backed Yes | 39c | 97.01$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.55 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +115%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 74c | 88.98$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes | 15c | 79.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 32c | 74.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 34c | 73.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 72.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 72c | 69.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed Yes | 31c | 59.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 158 | 34.2%54 W · 104 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b1…f521backed Yes | 24c | 56.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83fd…b67fbacked Yes | 34c | 55.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5b…40cabacked Yes | 35c | 53.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c81…1b64backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 28c | 46.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed Yes | 37c | 46.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee3…0e6ebacked Yes | 26c | 45.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 72c | 45.52$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7453…aee6backed Yes | 32c | 44.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…2133backed Yes | 27c | 44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 73c | 43.79$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…9678backed No | 68c | 43.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -12.1wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0175…4264backed No | 68c | 43.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -12.2wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7d…9e7abacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354e…c0b2backed No | 67c | 39.42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 64c | 39.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5df…bc23backed No | 72c | 37.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a14…49d5backed Yes | 35c | 37.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 65c | 37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 68c | 35.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes | 35c | 35.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 64c | 34.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 71c | 33.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbef4…3e00backed Yes | 32c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7596…02a9backed Yes | 34c | 30.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 29.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 67c | 28.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 72c | 28.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x855e…de25backed No | 69c | 28.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -7.7wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4444…3caebacked No | 68c | 28.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00f9…94a6backed No | 67c | 21.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd612…1f0cbacked No | 63c | 20.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87c0…8be1backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x692b…4532backed No | 65c | 18.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 75c | 17.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 68c | 17.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 71c | 17.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…a166backed No | 73c | 16.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf582…0a68backed No | 63c | 16.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2427…52a2backed No | 69c | 16.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 68c | 15.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or higher on April 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.