Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7dd73eba11ac216000e395dda4be05467e2e606ca074a4877fe1400d3f84014
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,512
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,223
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,512 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 70c | 1,080$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.71 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 37c | 468.35$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.51 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe46…cb39backed Yes | 26c | 434.25$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.35 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 58c | 395.92$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.77 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 54c | 353.42$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.82 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 64c | 339.63$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.03 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 44c | 338.84$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.63 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked Yes | 16c | 319.85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.67 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 313.29$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.21 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 64c | 311.23$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.12 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6260…6b21backed No | 36c | 299.98$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.99 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 33c | 241.53$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.07 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 228.54$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.54 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…9bedbacked Yes | 74c | 208.36$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 200$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 62c | 199.98$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.99 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 35c | 196.4$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.38 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3018…bae6backed No | 6c | 191.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 21c | 188.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.02 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…a115backed No | 59c | 170$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 168.52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.51 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 31c | 161.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28d9…7275backed Yes | 37c | 158.41$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.58 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 29c | 151.84$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.42 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33f2…4fc0backed Yes | 23c | 149.08$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.75 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 55c | 143.85$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.35 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a52…baafbacked Yes | 61c | 141.8$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.92 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13f4…93cbbacked Yes | 38c | 132.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.63 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 18c | 130.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.71 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 11c | 127.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x42e1…8148backed Yes | 31c | 123.11$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.2 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 35c | 122.54$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.19 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed No | 78c | 121.52$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.78 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 49c | 121.29$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.91 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 39c | 110.12$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.52 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed Yes | 42c | 106.07$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.4 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 100.23$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.11 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed Yes | 36c | 98.28$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.9 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 68c | 97.88$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.81 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed No | 18c | 95.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4d…6e9dbacked Yes | 51c | 93.25$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 53c | 89.79$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.14 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 57c | 84.27$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.41 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 59c | 81.85$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x381c…aae8backed Yes | 14c | 81.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.13 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 35c | 80.53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 36c | 78.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 39c | 76.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.63 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 39c | 76.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.32 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 65c | 73.35$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 32c | 68.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 39c | 66.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.53 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee3…0e6ebacked Yes | 18c | 66.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.93 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 52c | 66.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 29c | 63.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.61 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed Yes | 31c | 60.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 158 | 34.2%54 W · 104 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 45c | 58.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.78 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe88f…34cebacked Yes | 32c | 57.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…45efbacked Yes | 34c | 55.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 34c | 54.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.83 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 35c | 52.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.12 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x139b…2db1backed Yes | 36c | 52.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.34 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 48c | 50.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed Yes | 30c | 50.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.01 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…0190backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c81…1b64backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8387…3b83backed Yes | 51c | 47.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 36c | 46.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 70c | 46.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 35c | 45.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 48c | 45.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac28…f2d4backed Yes | 54c | 44.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 65c | 44.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf694…24e3backed Yes | 43c | 43.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354e…c0b2backed No | 60c | 43.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed Yes | 36c | 43.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 64c | 43.49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed No | 50c | 42.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 49c | 41.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…d152backed Yes | 30c | 41.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.93 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…93abbacked No | 73c | 40.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3462…16b6backed Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 39.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 59c | 39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a14…49d5backed Yes | 31c | 38.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce0…5a0abacked Yes | 49c | 37.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 66c | 37.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1535…d77bbacked Yes | 34c | 37.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1c…1d5abacked Yes | 60c | 37.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 68c | 36.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or higher on April 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.