Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on August 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1cab64cdccf8c014fbbc9a50cf6819c5cf1a7bc8c82854b66e519b5ef75232e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,990
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,861
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,990 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 39c | 481.06$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 77c | 417.77$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.33 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 69c | 391.99$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.23 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb8…8c23backed Yes | 25c | 389.7$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.28 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 58c | 199.99$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.99 | 161 | 46%74 W · 87 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecff…5645backed Yes | 26c | 198.72$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.35 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 48c | 198$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.96 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 68c | 173.72$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.76 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 156.66$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 153.4$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.65 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 54c | 138.98$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.82 | 450 | 59.1%266 W · 184 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 44c | 134.03$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.79 | 725 | 42.2%306 W · 419 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 23c | 127$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.79 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 53c | 113.44$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.96 | 601 | 23.6%142 W · 459 L | -25.1wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 75c | 111$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.94 | 525 | 67%352 W · 173 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 44c | 107.18$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.19 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed No | 35c | 99.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 221 | 16.7%37 W · 184 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 23c | 98.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.68 | 370 | 27.8%103 W · 267 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 42c | 94.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.94 | 929 | 44.3%412 W · 517 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 54c | 92.23$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.38 | 986 | 51.1%504 W · 482 L | -49.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 48c | 90.96$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.28 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 46c | 88.64$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.77 | 1,335 | 50.9%680 W · 655 L | -35.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 53c | 82.76$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.97 | 1,477 | 58.6%865 W · 612 L | +72.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 21c | 80$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.2 | 1,472 | 34.8%512 W · 960 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed Yes | 55c | 77.62$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.86 | 253 | 57.7%146 W · 107 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 23c | 72.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.69 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc9…1a16backed Yes | 41c | 70.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 23c | 68.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.86 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 33c | 64.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.59 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 24c | 64.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.47 | 1,268 | 58.4%740 W · 528 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked Yes | 25c | 63.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.9 | 247 | 56.3%139 W · 108 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 73c | 57.58$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.98 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 57c | 52.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 637 | 50.1%319 W · 318 L | +32.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cc…95bebacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 671 | 38.9%261 W · 410 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…7dafbacked No | 72c | 46.58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 85 | 76.5%65 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 60c | 45.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked Yes | 55c | 42.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 483 | 62.5%302 W · 181 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 36c | 41.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 786 | 27.1%213 W · 573 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 34c | 40.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 34c | 40.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 39c | 38.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 202 | 55.4%112 W · 90 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 55c | 31.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 415 | 51.3%213 W · 202 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb1…4897backed Yes | 42c | 28.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 79c | 26.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 691 | 50.5%349 W · 342 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 73c | 24.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 706 | 75.5%533 W · 173 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 41c | 24.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 296 | 28.4%84 W · 212 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b8…e849backed No | 61c | 23.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 22.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f9…731abacked No | 55c | 22.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2560…8d6dbacked Yes | 60c | 21.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 515 | 52%268 W · 247 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed No | 63c | 20.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0022…c966backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda61…2b5fbacked No | 80c | 19.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2035…dc1cbacked Yes | 54c | 18.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 71c | 15.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -19.9wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 73c | 14.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on August 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 86-87°F on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 88-89°F on August 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.