Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on August 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x382a096e4d7711e3dc2f25732c492c9072f8f1d24897daf7e8df3e1c96ef1326
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,444
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,392
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,444 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 44c | 1,100$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.79 | 1,472 | 34.8%512 W · 960 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 76c | 653.52$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.36 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 55c | 621.39$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.51 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 33c | 399$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.62 | 305 | 26.9%82 W · 223 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 32c | 397.97$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.95 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 61c | 379.45$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.6 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 63c | 265.84$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.44 | 483 | 62.5%302 W · 181 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 53c | 225.2$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.78 | 1,254 | 59.8%750 W · 504 L | +36.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b29…f288backed No | 47c | 223.77$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.77 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb8…8c23backed Yes | 54c | 200$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 39c | 199.98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.99 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 35c | 199.82$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.32 | 725 | 42.2%306 W · 419 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 52c | 198.36$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.15 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 61c | 163.03$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.58 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 35c | 155.6$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 339 | 43.1%146 W · 193 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 56c | 154.66$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.05 | 255 | 69%176 W · 79 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked No | 66c | 151.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.51 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 54c | 139.81$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.39 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 48c | 125.85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.66 | 601 | 23.6%142 W · 459 L | -25.1wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 56c | 117$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.94 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 37c | 114.87$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 11c | 101.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 28c | 92.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 29c | 88.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 1,477 | 58.6%865 W · 612 L | +72.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 84.13$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 55c | 81.34$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 1,268 | 58.4%740 W · 528 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 52c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 287 | 58.5%168 W · 119 L | +10.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed Yes | 32c | 79.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 253 | 57.7%146 W · 107 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 32c | 79.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 986 | 51.1%504 W · 482 L | -49.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 44c | 76.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 67.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 53c | 67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 1,335 | 50.9%680 W · 655 L | -35.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeec7…2fa1backed No | 51c | 63.37$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.79 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 48c | 61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 72c | 57.86$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 461 | 62.3%287 W · 174 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf3…2286backed No | 51c | 50.47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 697 | 35.3%246 W · 451 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2035…dc1cbacked Yes | 30c | 48.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 52c | 47.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.82 | 189 | 52.4%99 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 75c | 46.25$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 378 | 56.3%213 W · 165 L | +31.5wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 68c | 45.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 386 | 52.8%204 W · 182 L | -25.5wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 46c | 37.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 42c | 36.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 53c | 36.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…a665backed No | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f0…1731backed No | 79c | 32.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61dd…cbd8backed No | 51c | 32.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 65c | 31.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2799…b1e1backed No | 57c | 30.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78fb…256cbacked No | 49c | 28.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda61…2b5fbacked No | 55c | 26.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…6595backed Yes | 48c | 26.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x383a…a20cbacked Yes | 53c | 25.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 374 | 67.4%252 W · 122 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e56…3aebbacked No | 67c | 23.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 72cpaid | +26%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b8…e849backed No | 56c | 23.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed No | 56c | 21.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…88a2backed No | 75c | 20.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 71 | 78.9%56 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 247 | 56.3%139 W · 108 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 55c | 19.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe58b…d6f5backed No | 52c | 19.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on August 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on August 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 86-87°F on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 88-89°F on August 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.