CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs fnatic (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ccafb281cc2f1cfd3e64e1b67bfe7121961c64577b8c89882979b322ef8baf5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Aurora Gamingof Aurora Gaming, fnatic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,745
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,745 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd9b…414dbacked fnatic | 30c | 40,995$12,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,187.63 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ee…697bbacked Aurora Gaming | 71c | 26,706$18,961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,744.84 | 98 | 61.2%60 W · 38 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…73b3backed Aurora Gaming | 72c | 6,944$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,944.44 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed fnatic | 34c | 3,736$1,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,263.92 | 273 | 45.8%125 W · 148 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Aurora Gaming | 66c | 3,030$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,030.2 | 670 | 41.8%280 W · 390 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed32…20d6backed Aurora Gaming | 72c | 2,500$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9823…02dbbacked Aurora Gaming | 76c | 2,229$1,694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.85 | 470 | 55.7%262 W · 208 L | +27.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7645…3117backed Aurora Gaming | 67c | 2,200$1,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726 | 716 | 45.9%329 W · 387 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…91adbacked Aurora Gaming | 72c | 1,500$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 124 | 65.3%81 W · 43 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Aurora Gaming | 72c | 1,389$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.89 | 180 | 51.1%92 W · 88 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Aurora Gaming | 72c | 1,389$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.89 | 212 | 51.4%109 W · 103 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed fnatic | 12c | 1,300$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.36 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa97…494fbacked Aurora Gaming | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.1 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked fnatic | 29c | 999.99$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 121 | 45.5%55 W · 66 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed fnatic | 3c | 956$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490a…1d4bbacked fnatic | 13c | 928.8$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.42 | 292 | 35.6%104 W · 188 L | -11.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6408…d2aebacked Aurora Gaming | 57c | 836$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.48 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc65…19a0backed fnatic | 29c | 700$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd92d…e560backed Aurora Gaming | 68c | 700$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224 | 586 | 51%299 W · 287 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Aurora Gaming | 70c | 697.33$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.9 | 1,969 | 46.7%919 W · 1,050 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked fnatic | 30c | 599.98$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.99 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…8fe8backed Aurora Gaming | 72c | 576$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34a2…abd7backed fnatic | 14c | 554$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.56 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked fnatic | 29c | 500$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 812 | 44.3%360 W · 452 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa05b…a94fbacked Aurora Gaming | 70c | 428.57$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -6.4wins | -0.22per pick | 60cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8541…a367backed fnatic | 27c | 350$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 283 | 44.2%125 W · 158 L | +17.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked fnatic | 32c | 324.24$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 980 | 52.4%514 W · 466 L | +26.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Aurora Gaming | 72c | 277.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 265 | 63%167 W · 98 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Aurora Gaming | 70c | 259.53$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.86 | 216 | 39.8%86 W · 130 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed fnatic | 30c | 250$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 259 | 41.3%107 W · 152 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Aurora Gaming | 68c | 220.82$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.04 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…cba8backed fnatic | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed fnatic | 30c | 145.71$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.71 | 972 | 30%292 W · 680 L | -23.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3429…7dd4backed Aurora Gaming | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +97.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked fnatic | 26c | 140$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 1,181 | 22.5%266 W · 915 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Aurora Gaming | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 367 | 51%187 W · 180 L | -15.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3819…1774backed Aurora Gaming | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe283…7190backed Aurora Gaming | 72c | 130.56$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 965 | 45.7%441 W · 524 L | +10.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38b8…5d35backed fnatic | 10c | 101.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 364 | 37.4%136 W · 228 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Aurora Gaming | 72c | 90.28$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fd…5b3cbacked fnatic | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1af3…3ef6backed Aurora Gaming | 70c | 85.71$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 59cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x420b…965bbacked Aurora Gaming | 69c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 582 | 54.3%316 W · 266 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb819…cc67backed Aurora Gaming | 65c | 63.78$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 241 | 55.6%134 W · 107 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4762…7eb8backed Aurora Gaming | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e98…3e80backed Aurora Gaming | 78c | 54.01$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f22…be14backed Aurora Gaming | 65c | 53.57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Aurora Gaming | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 354 | 54.2%192 W · 162 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf02c…2cf8backed Aurora Gaming | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x498b…ca86backed Aurora Gaming | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 206 | 59.2%122 W · 84 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…204ebacked Aurora Gaming | 72c | 41.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e6…53b2backed Aurora Gaming | 72c | 40.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…a51abacked Aurora Gaming | 71c | 35.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Aurora Gaming | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 283 | 51.9%147 W · 136 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6d…a980backed Aurora Gaming | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf76f…d928backed Aurora Gaming | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea1…6072backed Aurora Gaming | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67eb…2335backed Aurora Gaming | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7514…49bebacked Aurora Gaming | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 317 | 58%184 W · 133 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa841…46cbbacked Aurora Gaming | 71c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed Aurora Gaming | 68c | 25.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1643…2844backed Aurora Gaming | 72c | 16.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 26 | 84.6%22 W · 4 L | +6.0wins | +0.23per pick | 61cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.