Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 50-51°F on January 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d066da2a7aa9f2b2d5a322388de791b56dc17b28c91ce5321e96376b2abe779
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,336
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,463
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,336 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf457…ce63backed No | 73c | 4,705$3,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,434.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc46…5157backed Yes | 27c | 4,700$1,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,431 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc81c…8974backed Yes | 26c | 4,200$1,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,108 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…12d6backed No | 74c | 4,200$3,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,108 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9513…1dc6backed Yes | 23c | 400.41$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.95 | 85 | 18.8%16 W · 69 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0231…45d0backed Yes | 39c | 383.84$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.95 | 121 | 24.8%30 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 76c | 336.62$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.57 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 30c | 311.83$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.53 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 8c | 285.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 63c | 236.21$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.17 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 212.16$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.75 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 73c | 162.53$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.74 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 38c | 139$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.97 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15b2…b310backed Yes | 25c | 115.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb74…83aabacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 22c | 99.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.64 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2138…8a11backed Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 79.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.39 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8c…1d62backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 76c | 60.04$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.88 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 24c | 51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.55 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 71c | 49.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391c…68d1backed No | 76c | 49.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d65…2061backed No | 71c | 49.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x666f…9ddfbacked Yes | 27c | 39.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.19 | 107 | 26.2%28 W · 79 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c75…a28ebacked Yes | 44c | 39.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa86…422cbacked Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 80c | 28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe70f…0522backed Yes | 60c | 27.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…76e9backed Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 47c | 21.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97a2…fa4dbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2d…ddc1backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13a8…642bbacked No | 51c | 19.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed No | 73c | 13.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 50-51°F on January 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 52°F or higher on January 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 42-43°F on January 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 44-45°F on January 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 48-49°F on January 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.