MLB · resolved market
Astros vs. Brewers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d0bd763e86348399790687cb79f5f4145d41e7a99f805a1f4edd7704ce85eb8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Brewersof Astros, Brewers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,472
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,472 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Astros | 48c | 20,703$9,937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,937.44 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf980…6528backed Brewers | 52c | 17,966$9,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,633.14 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Brewers | 52c | 7,690$3,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,691.4 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Astros | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b1…6f55backed Astros | 47c | 2,128$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Brewers | 52c | 1,124$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.47 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Astros | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.16 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Brewers | 49c | 701.64$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.84 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Astros | 48c | 488.68$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.68 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked Brewers | 53c | 446.78$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.99 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed Astros | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…15ddbacked Astros | 51c | 326.96$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.75 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Astros | 51c | 279.48$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.53 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Astros | 46c | 251.76$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.81 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9415…cb92backed Astros | 44c | 236.91$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.24 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Astros | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Astros | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Brewers | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ea…e15cbacked Brewers | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 223 | 51.6%115 W · 108 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Brewers | 50c | 181$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.5 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeee…ccb7backed Astros | 50c | 176$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1e…65c1backed Brewers | 55c | 127.27$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 299 | 48.8%146 W · 153 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Astros | 47c | 120.73$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.22 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Astros | 20c | 110$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Brewers | 52c | 104$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.92 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Astros | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Astros | 48c | 97$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.56 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Astros | 48c | 90.56$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.29 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Brewers | 54c | 74.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 375 | 52.5%197 W · 178 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Astros | 46c | 73$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Brewers | 64c | 55.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Astros | 45c | 51.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Brewers | 51c | 43.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Astros | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Brewers | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Brewers | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Astros | 48c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Astros | 47c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 1,051 | 50.4%530 W · 521 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Astros | 48c | 23.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.