MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d0fe9758c8d451f997f52d9bc0b73597ae82a70f515df47c9f62fd683146ef3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $216,715
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $211,954
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $216,715 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ae1…9fadbacked Under | 56c | 199,755$112,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87,644.11 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3a…020bbacked Over | 44c | 70,000$30,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,500 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 44c | 41,509$18,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,183.17 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 45c | 27,200$12,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,239.99 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Over | 44c | 24,000$10,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,560 | 550 | 53.6%295 W · 255 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed Over | 43c | 15,503$6,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,666.3 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +237.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 44c | 4,989$2,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,195.3 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa974…ef79backed Under | 55c | 3,794$2,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,707.4 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 34c | 3,134$1,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,051.9 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Over | 43c | 2,415$1,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,038.24 | 246 | 51.6%127 W · 119 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Over | 45c | 2,222$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 43c | 2,097$902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901.76 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 44c | 2,088$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$921.49 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 45c | 1,780$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 44c | 1,750$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.71 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb7…d613backed Over | 45c | 1,504$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.9 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 44c | 1,272$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.68 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x055a…12ddbacked Over | 32c | 1,202$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.18 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Over | 44c | 600.93$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.88 | 185 | 53.5%99 W · 86 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 45c | 538.89$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.47 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 44c | 519.56$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.92 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Over | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 859 | 52.6%452 W · 407 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Under | 56c | 446$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.24 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 59c | 434.05$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.96 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 44c | 401$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.44 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Over | 43c | 348.84$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…220cbacked Over | 43c | 344.41$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.74 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce9…7115backed Over | 7c | 339.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 57c | 304.4$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.89 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 45c | 279.36$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.71 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 45c | 245.62$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.57 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacbe…85d4backed Over | 46c | 241.9$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.27 | 228 | 49.1%112 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Over | 44c | 230$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 44c | 222.27$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.8 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4093…5749backed Over | 45c | 222.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x902f…fb2dbacked Over | 44c | 202.74$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.77 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1852…76ccbacked Over | 46c | 188.6$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.1 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +10.5wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x70f9…f25bbacked Over | 43c | 175.78$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.58 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Over | 45c | 171.91$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.36 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ac…0e0bbacked Over | 45c | 154.72$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.62 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 44c | 137.23$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.38 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 45c | 128.93$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.02 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Over | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…c7a2backed Over | 45c | 107.44$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…6f57backed Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 69c | 89.76$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 44c | 88.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Over | 45c | 85.96$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.68 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Over | 45c | 73.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 200 | 44.5%89 W · 111 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9d…0553backed Over | 44c | 66.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5f…8eadbacked Over | 45c | 64.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Under | 54c | 54.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Over | 45c | 54.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 55c | 53.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Over | 44c | 52.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 383 | 52.2%200 W · 183 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Over | 47c | 51.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Under | 55c | 50.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 137 | 42.3%58 W · 79 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0e…b0babacked Over | 45c | 42.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd11…0da3backed Over | 45c | 38.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Over | 43c | 38.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d19…a694backed Over | 30c | 37.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 107 | 35.5%38 W · 69 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 45c | 36.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Under | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe748…bc49backed Over | 44c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7832…9384backed Over | 45c | 32.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe626…92b5backed Over | 45c | 32.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 43c | 30.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…85f8backed Over | 45c | 28.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Over | 45c | 25.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7770…f99bbacked Over | 45c | 24.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x108c…122dbacked Over | 43c | 24.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 63c | 20.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Under | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 268 | 54.1%145 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 67c | 16.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Colorado RockiesSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 2.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 5.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Colorado RockiesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.