MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x733f2906865eeef57e6fc576d9c4f171126feccbfb526c44509029b2df93d0c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Colorado Rockiesof San Diego Padres, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,897
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,777
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,897 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed San Diego Padres | 23c | 1,260$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.57 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed San Diego Padres | 44c | 483.2$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.61 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked San Diego Padres | 39c | 456.05$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.86 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Colorado Rockies | 56c | 448.42$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.3 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked San Diego Padres | 49c | 400.43$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.21 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Colorado Rockies | 51c | 358.63$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.43 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Colorado Rockies | 61c | 342.79$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.69 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked San Diego Padres | 30c | 316.14$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.84 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ed…4a93backed Colorado Rockies | 52c | 296.22$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.18 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed San Diego Padres | 48c | 201.83$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.88 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked San Diego Padres | 48c | 199.98$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.96 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Colorado Rockies | 52c | 186.77$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.65 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Colorado Rockies | 52c | 168.09$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.68 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Colorado Rockies | 68c | 143.31$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.25 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Colorado Rockies | 51c | 122.98$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.06 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Colorado Rockies | 65c | 114.48$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45dd…7b56backed San Diego Padres | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed San Diego Padres | 49c | 98.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Colorado Rockies | 58c | 92.37$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.52 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Colorado Rockies | 52c | 78.58$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Colorado Rockies | 63c | 75.65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed San Diego Padres | 46c | 64.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce5…a07fbacked San Diego Padres | 30c | 57.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed San Diego Padres | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked San Diego Padres | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc766…1533backed San Diego Padres | 49c | 49.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Colorado Rockies | 60c | 48.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac9…f5ddbacked Colorado Rockies | 52c | 47.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe1…1a78backed San Diego Padres | 40c | 41.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Colorado Rockies | 68c | 36.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Colorado Rockies | 54c | 36.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 459 | 52.9%243 W · 216 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Colorado Rockies | 54c | 25.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Colorado Rockies | 53c | 21.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x362d…0c58backed Colorado Rockies | 62c | 20.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Colorado Rockies | 61c | 18.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Colorado RockiesSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 2.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 5.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Colorado RockiesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.