Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2025-12-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d310bb61cc4e070f49224d0969cf391e464fcec1e6cb0073479c36bc9ce72c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,057
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,395
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,057 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 40c | 2,770$1,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,095.68 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc97…7d32backed Yes | 60c | 1,150$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.94 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.36per pick | 53cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked Yes | 62c | 973.51$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.51 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…0284backed Yes | 60c | 970.27$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6a…9717backed Yes | 60c | 833.33$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.33 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 19c | 692.03$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.7 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…4af9backed No | 31c | 641.94$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked No | 29c | 570.92$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.57 | 473 | 25.4%120 W · 353 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90b6…3b53backed No | 30c | 520$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…15f8backed Yes | 71c | 370.28$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.38 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -5.6wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 71c | 277$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.96 | 396 | 37.1%147 W · 249 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed No | 29c | 249.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 40c | 236.57$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.53 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf80…2ac8backed Yes | 70c | 213.59$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 72c | 157.02$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.54 | 297 | 42.8%127 W · 170 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 28c | 144.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.46 | 570 | 19.8%113 W · 457 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c19…accebacked Yes | 72c | 137.5$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…0a8dbacked No | 27c | 110$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 16c | 106.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 192 | 41.7%80 W · 112 L | -12.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Yes | 70c | 94$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…0dd9backed No | 27c | 91.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 98 | 11.2%11 W · 87 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec7…7796backed No | 28c | 90.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf2…45bcbacked Yes | 72c | 90$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 328 | 35.4%116 W · 212 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 29c | 77.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 1,143 | 53.2%608 W · 535 L | +44.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…b4a3backed No | 30c | 74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 70c | 71.05$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5699…418dbacked Yes | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8eda…1847backed Yes | 63c | 58.81$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 28c | 57.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 495 | 28.7%142 W · 353 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 72c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 985 | 52.3%515 W · 470 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b0…1517backed Yes | 71c | 52.1$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…0290backed No | 30c | 49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed No | 40c | 42.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8754…2db6backed Yes | 71c | 39.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…b60cbacked No | 30c | 37.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…9f5abacked No | 30c | 36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc87…d938backed Yes | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb71…4371backed Yes | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…a645backed Yes | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 71c | 28.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 892 | 58.2%519 W · 373 L | +58.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2614…1000backed Yes | 70c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 182 | 41.8%76 W · 106 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f5c…54dbbacked Yes | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c3…3c3fbacked Yes | 72c | 19.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Yes | 71c | 16.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38ee…012fbacked Yes | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf40b…29d6backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b0…b71fbacked Yes | 69c | 15.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.26per pick | 49cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…87b0backed Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52cc…9998backed Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2025-12-14?this page
- Will Moreirense FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica end in a draw?No won
- Will Moreirense FC win on 2025-12-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.